KCollins1304 wrote:Geek wrote:KCollins1304 wrote:
.280, 30 hr, 100 rbi is A-Rod's floor(he did this even in 444 AB last year) while it is pretty close to Zimmerman's ceiling, that is the reason for the difference in draft position. A-Rod still has the upside to hit 40-45 HR, I really don't think Zimmerman can go much higher than the 33 he hit last year.
It seems very much in doubt whether he has 40+ HR upside anymore. The last time he was north of 40+ HR was 2007. Each year he gets older and further removed from his prime.
He has marginally more upside--this season--than Zimmerman, but has definitely fallen from the top of the 3b heap behind Longoria and Wright. More like a 3rd rounder than a #3 overall.
Longoria is creeping up on him but I don't understand why someone would take Wright over him after last year. And I definitely wasn't inferring that he was a lock for 40 HR, but I would definitely wager on him hitting 40 over Zimmerman and Wright. Once you consider his R/RBI numbers hitting 4th in the Yankees lineup, I would still take him today over any other 3b option including Longoria.
Is 7 years younger
Hasn't missed over two months with injuries the past two years
Steals 10-15 more bases per year
Hits about .15 in average
Doesn't have the ex-juicer cloud hanging over him (raise your hand if you're certain A-Rod didn't juice in 2005-2007)
It's only May, and A-Rod is already gimpy--after missing 20+ games with injury the past two years.
And, he had perhaps the worst power month of his career (certainly since his Mariner days). He very likely could have fewer April-May HRs than he did last year--and he didn't play in April last year.
He's still going to be a productive player, but all signs point to his elite status being a thing of the past.