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Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby fezzik » Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:30 pm

It's a tricky question. While I think Upton has an as good or better chance at becoming a first rounder next season than anyone drafted after round 1 this season, I still don't think his chances are great. He is crazy-talented and the comparison to Kemp is a good one, but there are too many variables IMO to reliably place him there in 2011.

I would give it a 15-20% chance of happening, but I would give everyone else currently outside the first round a lesser chance...so take that as you will.

I could see other guys like Holliday, possibly Wright if he finds his form (unlikely IMO, but he's proven he can do it), maybe Tulo, AGon if he gets traded to a hitter's park :-L , maybe Reynolds puts up a similar year in 2010 warranting a first round pick in 2011, or if Halladay simply shuts down the NL with his dominance....these guys have legit shots to be in the first round, not to mention someone coming out of nowhere. Then you have to have some first rounders stumble, and I'm sure there will be some who do just that...there always are (usually 4-5 of the top 12 will not be drafted quite that high the next season).

But Upton could plateau, regress, get injured, lose confidence, make a smaller step up than needed to crack the 1st round, etc...so I put the percent lower than some of you guys.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby zhutou » Tue Mar 23, 2010 10:00 pm

what about his brother? i really thought bj would break out last year after watching him single handedly destroy the red sox in the 2008 playoffs. he ended being a huge disappointment but i remember he had some kind of injury. what do you guys see him putting up this year?
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed Mar 24, 2010 11:10 pm

Someone bought Upton at $46 in the Roto Arcade Pro-Am. He better hope Upton produces like a first rounder this year. :-D
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed Mar 24, 2010 11:32 pm

j24jags wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:Someone bought Upton at $46 in the Roto Arcade Pro-Am. He better hope Upton produces like a first rounder this year. :-D

8-o

The only players I've seen who consistently go for 46+ are Pujols, A-Rod, Hanley.


I'm sure the next couple of days Pianowski will explain himself. It was a really, really fierce bidding war as there were like 5 bidders that kept on clicking.

Keeping things in context, Braun was off at $44 and Kemp at $39.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby kab21 » Thu Mar 25, 2010 3:03 am

The Artful Dodger wrote:
I'm sure the next couple of days Pianowski will explain himself. It was a really, really fierce bidding war as there were like 5 bidders that kept on clicking.

Keeping things in context, Braun was off at $44 and Kemp at $39.


That's what I love about auctions. :-D
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby Gujarmart » Thu Mar 25, 2010 4:24 pm

If he did what he did last year and his stats project over a 162 game schedule, then yes, he will
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby tbill87 » Fri Mar 26, 2010 10:57 am

When looking at the top 15 in ADP for the past 6 years, only 38% of the players finished anywhere in the top 15 at the end of the year. Injuries happen, players emerge, media hype gets people hooked on certain players. Does J. Upton have the tools to be a first rounder next year, absolutely. Growth in OB, SLG, CT% and H% would indicate his game is still improving and all at the age of 23. I think the odds are better than 50/50 that he is a first rounder next year.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby thedude » Fri Mar 26, 2010 12:02 pm

kab21 wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:
I'm sure the next couple of days Pianowski will explain himself. It was a really, really fierce bidding war as there were like 5 bidders that kept on clicking.

Keeping things in context, Braun was off at $44 and Kemp at $39.


That's what I love about auctions. :-D

Social competitive bidding = fun for everyone but the winner.
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