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Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby Montana168 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:59 pm

2% chance that upton is a 1st rounder next yr. just too many other studs ahead of him. also kemp, braun, and holliday are still ahead of him.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby Mordraken » Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:59 pm

I'm an Upton owner in a career league - signed him to a $3 salary which is fantastic ($200 league cap for 20 players). I'm very happy to have him under contract for what will likely be 5 years (+$5 player price per year).

However, everyone may want to temper their expectations just a bit with him. His overall stats were very good, and his ending season stats were solid, but he was VERY streaky. Look at his OPS by month:
April - .745 (a horrible month where many people dropped him all together... fortunately for me I dropped Chris Davis instead)
May - 1.154 (took off)
June - .915 (runs and RBIs down considerably, averaging 4 of each / week)
July - .750 (but runs & RBIs remained steady with June)
Aug - 1.212 (took off again, but only played part of the month due to injury)
Sept - .758 (another horrible month).

So.. he had 2 phenomenal months, 1 very good month and 3 bad months from an OPS perspective. He's a 5 category player, but he's not a lock for a 100/100/30/30 season... Note that last year he didn't eclipse double digits in either RBIs or Runs, nor did he break 30 steals or homers.

Kid's got potential, but in a redraft league there are likely safer choices in the top 2-3 rounds.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Mar 22, 2010 5:47 pm

Montana168 wrote:2% chance that upton is a 1st rounder next yr. just too many other studs ahead of him. also kemp, braun, and holliday are still ahead of him.


Not really. Wright, Reyes, Sizemore, Rollins, and Hamilton were first rounders last year by rookies 2009 MDP. There's no way at least one of current top 2010 guys doesn't drop out.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby kingmike74 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Montana168 wrote:2% chance that upton is a 1st rounder next yr. just too many other studs ahead of him. also kemp, braun, and holliday are still ahead of him.



I posed this same question with Kemp last year, got the same response as above.

Does Upton have 1st round skills, of course, does he slump like most young guys, of course, when does he put it all together, who knows, but he will get better each and every year.


I will tell you who will be first round next year with, Joey Votto. Living near Cincy and having friends in the organization, let me say that Votto is on a mission. If he has less than 35 HR's and an average lower than .320, I will be surprised. 110 RBI to boot, a lock for a late first round pick next year, bank on it!
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby hybrid » Mon Mar 22, 2010 7:06 pm

kingmike74 wrote:
Montana168 wrote:2% chance that upton is a 1st rounder next yr. just too many other studs ahead of him. also kemp, braun, and holliday are still ahead of him.



I posed this same question with Kemp last year, got the same response as above.

Does Upton have 1st round skills, of course, does he slump like most young guys, of course, when does he put it all together, who knows, but he will get better each and every year.


I will tell you who will be first round next year with, Joey Votto. Living near Cincy and having friends in the organization, let me say that Votto is on a mission. If he has less than 35 HR's and an average lower than .320, I will be surprised. 110 RBI to boot, a lock for a late first round pick next year, bank on it!


Way to build your own credit and destroy it in the same post. :-b
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby rookies and cream » Mon Mar 22, 2010 7:49 pm

Kemp is a good comparison, and one that I've been making all offseason. I'd peg it at about 40% that Upton is a first rounder next year.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby RAmst23 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 9:19 pm

I think J UP will be a end of the first round guy next year. Not necessarily because he goes all out and puts up insane stats this year, but after this season J UP will have just turned 23. That means, if he goes .280/28/80/80/18 (very similar to alot of projections out there at ~160 G played) then he'll have two years of major league service time to progress from instead of one. His floor will be clearly established and less risk involved while still having lots of room to grow.

For this upcoming season I'd rather not have J UP in a redraft, I'll go with Grady Sizemore or Curtis Granderson a little later.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby Matthias » Mon Mar 22, 2010 9:51 pm

Justin Upside is a player that I'll probably never own.

As Mordraken pointed out, he was very streaky last year. He wasn't dropped in our league but I think his owner was very, very close. And players like that just scare me before the 4th or 5th round. There are solid, guaranteed, at least as close as you can get, producers at those points and I would feel a whole lot better picking one of them than someone who I'm hoping on.

If he dropped to me in the 5th, I'd pick him. But he won't so I won't. As far as his odds of him being a 1st rounder next year... I'd say about 1 in 3. If he reproduces his numbers from this year he probably will be, but I see the odds of him actually being worth a 1st rounder at somewhere south of that.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby ayebatter » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:02 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Kemp is a good comparison, and one that I've been making all offseason. I'd peg it at about 40% that Upton is a first rounder next year.



This ;-D

and for all of you that think Kemp isn't a perfect comparison, take a peek at his 2008 numbers:
April - .848 ops
May - .648 ops
June - .725 ops
July - .959 ops
August - .780 ops
Sept/Oct - .749 ops

Kemp breaks out in 2009 - 2010 1st rounder.
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Re: Odds Justin Upton ends up a 1st rounder next year.

Postby dmbjeff » Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:08 pm

one could argue that upton is a 1st rounder this year.
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