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2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:17 am

those casual fans who dont look deep but rather look at overall stats arnt going to be very impressed by Nolasco, but those who take the time to look deeper are not surprised that Nolasco can be very good in 2010.
i dont think hes going to go Greinke. i dont really think you can predict many if any pitchers to do what Greinke did. its not very often at all a pitcher can finish with an ERA closer to 2 than 3 like Greinke did in 2009.
i wouldnt be surprised to see Nolasco with an ERA not much over 3 but i dont see him getting it under 3.
this is some of the comments that razzball had on Nolasco.
In 185 innings, Nolasco rang up 195 Ks and only gave up 44 walks. His K/BB rate ranked fifth in the majors just behind Greinke, Vazquez, Haren and Halladay. He ranked eighth for the times he was able to get a batter to swing outside of the strike zone, just below Verlander
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby silverZ » Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:22 am

SHHHHH he's my favourite 8 or 9th round target along with Jimenez. Just like Greinke and Vazquez last year.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby MTUCache » Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:33 am

Okay... so... where does this put him in your SP rankings then?

Grienke's Ks and ratios were off the charts last season. I can see where Nolasco might get those Ks, but how likely do you think it is that he ends up with ratios lower than 2.50/1.10? I'm thinking that's still pretty unlikely. That would still bump him up to the second tier with Verlander-type numbers.

In that third tier of pitchers you've got around 15 guys who all have their upsides and risks.
Picking nine other names out of a hat, and putting them alphabetically, where does Nolasco fit in these 10 guys?

M.Cain
Y.Gallardo
T.Hanson
C.Hamels
U.Jiminez
C.Kershaw
J.Peavy
W.Rodriguez
J.Vazques

I'm definitely targeting Nolasco in around this range, but I'm not sure you can put him head and shoulders above any of these guys.
I think all of them have a 90% chance of returning pretty similar seasons (200IP, 14-17W, 190-210 Ks, 3.40-3.60ERA, and 1.20-1.30 WHIP) with a 10% chance of getting an extra W or to, 20-25 extra Ks, and getting their ERA down under 3.00.

Maybe Nolasco has a 15-20% chance of doing that, rather than just a 10% chance, but the ceiling/floor on this entire group is right about in the same range.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby The Artful Dodger » Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:32 pm

I've got Nolasco ranked 5th on that list, only behind Gallardo, Hanson, Hamels, and Ubaldo in no apparent order.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby MTUCache » Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:38 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:I've got Nolasco ranked 5th on that list, only behind Gallardo, Hanson, Hamels, and Ubaldo in no apparent order.

Exactly, and they're all going in relatively the same draft-position area, and they've all got a roughly equal chance of having that great-ratio year.

Nolasco may be climbing into the upper-half of this pack, but I don't think his hype is enough to get him all the way out of this pack.

If I end up with any one first- or second-tier pitcher (anywhere down to Lee/Wainwright), and any two guys off this third-tier list, I'm happy with my core SP. I think that gives me as good a shot as anybody in the league (as long as no-one has gone crazy and drafted Lincecum/Halladay). Production from my #4/#5 spots will come with trying to find guys lower in the rankings.

There's still no way that I'd feel comfortable with Nolasco as the "ace" of my squad. I'd better have at least one guy with a higher ADP than him on my roster, if not two.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby The Artful Dodger » Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:54 pm

I have Nolasco as my #2 in the only league I drafted him in (Lincecum is #1). Personally, I like to pair a #1 who figures to be the most reliable (Lincecum/Halladay/Felix/CC/Greinke) and a #2 that can take the next step to pitching as a #1 this season (Nolasco falls in this category). Given Nolasco's bad luck last year (especially in RISP situations) in the midst of showing good peripherals, he can finish as a #1. Sure, I wouldn't be comfortable banking on him as my #1, but the indicators are good he could emerge as one and he's definitely not the worst fallback option either.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby da_mane_man » Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:58 pm

why are people so high on jimenez? he had a career year last year and he still pitches in a hitters park. his lowest ERA prior to last year's 3.49 was 3.99.

i know he's still young and it looks like he's starting to put it together, but there's still a lot of risk there. i don't think he's ahead of guys like hamels or nolasco. idk i just don't feel right about him this year.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby MTUCache » Fri Mar 19, 2010 2:05 pm

da_mane_man wrote:why are people so high on jimenez? he had a career year last year and he still pitches in a hitters park. his lowest ERA prior to last year's 3.49 was 3.99.

i know he's still young and it looks like he's starting to put it together, but there's still a lot of risk there. i don't think he's ahead of guys like hamels or nolasco. idk i just don't feel right about him this year.

First, I don't think the "hitters park" of Coors is all that much of a factor.
Second, he's an NL pitcher (which most of the guys in this tier are), which keeps his K/9 upwards of 8+.
Third, because he pitches in the NL West, which means he gets heaps of games against SF, SD and AZ, so even though he plays on CO, he's still got a decent chance at 16+ Wins.

Lastly, because he's young, and people don't put a whole lot of weight into somebody's ERA in the first couple years of their career.

All that being said, he's just as much of a risk/reward as most of the guys on this list. If you happen to have him in the bottom-half of the tier instead of the top, I don't think anybody would fault you for it.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby The Artful Dodger » Fri Mar 19, 2010 2:24 pm

da_mane_man wrote:why are people so high on jimenez? he had a career year last year and he still pitches in a hitters park. his lowest ERA prior to last year's 3.49 was 3.99.

i know he's still young and it looks like he's starting to put it together, but there's still a lot of risk there. i don't think he's ahead of guys like hamels or nolasco. idk i just don't feel right about him this year.


For one thing, Ubaldo sports a 50%+ groundball rate. It doesn't really matter where you pitch if you can keep the ball down. In fact, he pitched better at Coors than away. His BB/9 also improved a good deal. Ubaldo also posted a 3.49 ERA on the year despite a couple months or so of bad luck.
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Re: 2010's Zack Greinke is: Ricky Nolasco

Postby fezzik » Fri Mar 19, 2010 2:44 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
da_mane_man wrote:why are people so high on jimenez? he had a career year last year and he still pitches in a hitters park. his lowest ERA prior to last year's 3.49 was 3.99.

i know he's still young and it looks like he's starting to put it together, but there's still a lot of risk there. i don't think he's ahead of guys like hamels or nolasco. idk i just don't feel right about him this year.


For one thing, Ubaldo sports a 50%+ groundball rate. It doesn't really matter where you pitch if you can keep the ball down. In fact, he pitched better at Coors than away. His BB/9 also improved a good deal. Ubaldo also posted a 3.49 ERA on the year despite a couple months or so of bad luck.


This, plus I've seen him hit 97-98 in the 7th and 8th inning...and he was so remarkably consistent from May until the end of the year. According to fangraphs data, his fastball, slider, and change all improved significantly last season.
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