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How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby The Cow » Sat Mar 13, 2010 12:22 pm

My 2 cents, I reached for Heyward in the 10th round. Yep. Sure I could have drafted a solid OF, but you know what I can draft a solid OF in round 17. Heyward can be a special player especially in this league as it is a keeper. I will roll the dice that Heyward pans out. Players don't always pan out, but sometimes they do, I have drafted a bust like Delmon Young and stud like Pujols and Prior (remember he was at one point in time healthy). I was also dumb enough to draft Wieters last year, but smart enough to draft Sandoval. My point is this these top prospects in a keeper league are worth the gamble especially if you can find late round gems like Adam Lind last year, or work the waiver wire and find talent. Really if you are good at working the waiver wire, you can offset a bust or two on draft day. The reward is very high for Heyward especially in a keeper.

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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby DaSh 1s » Sat Mar 13, 2010 8:07 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
MasterX1918 wrote:it'd be hard not to draft Heyward or Strasburg in the 18th round given they were available.


It's easy to not draft Strasburg there, he won't pitch a inning till June/July, and who knows what Inning caps they will have on him.

Plus the last two drafts I just did, he went at 187 and 189...

I guess, but in retrospect would you have drafted Tommy Hanson in the 18th round last year? He went undrafted in alot of my leagues and I was beating myself up over it when he got called up.


Huh? You just said he went undrafted. Wouldn't you just be able to pick him up? So are you beating yourself up over not drafting him (despite him becoming a FA), or not being able to pick him up in time before someone else? And then how does that relate to drafting Strasburg?
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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:18 pm

Matt Wieters sure is getting a lot of flack in this room.. last I checked, he has player about 100 games and is already the 4th rated catcher in most drafts. just becasue he didn't rake "Braun style" in his first half season, doesn't mean he won't. remember, he was pretty solid at the end of last year..
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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby da bears » Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:31 pm

how early would you jump on one of these guys if you had the option of keeping them in the round you draft him in this year for his entire career if you choose to keep him every year?
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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby MasterX1918 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:20 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
MasterX1918 wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
It's easy to not draft Strasburg there, he won't pitch a inning till June/July, and who knows what Inning caps they will have on him.

Plus the last two drafts I just did, he went at 187 and 189...

I guess, but in retrospect would you have drafted Tommy Hanson in the 18th round last year? He went undrafted in alot of my leagues and I was beating myself up over it when he got called up.


Huh? You just said he went undrafted. Wouldn't you just be able to pick him up? So are you beating yourself up over not drafting him (despite him becoming a FA), or not being able to pick him up in time before someone else? And then how does that relate to drafting Strasburg?

Both. I missed out on him when he got called up, if I had just drafted him in the latter rounds instead of some scrub I wouldn't of had to worry about picking him up as a free agent. It's the same scenario with Strasburg because if he goes undrafted teams will have to battle over him like teams had to battle over Hanson, and most managers including myself (especially in non-keepers) don't want guys who aren't in the majors on their rosters.
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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby Havok1517 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:35 pm

FYI, it is usually frowned upon to jump on people in our society.
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Re: How early is too early to jump on the hot prospects??

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:36 pm

The Cow wrote:My 2 cents, I reached for Heyward in the 10th round. Yep. Sure I could have drafted a solid OF, but you know what I can draft a solid OF in round 17. Heyward can be a special player especially in this league as it is a keeper. I will roll the dice that Heyward pans out. Players don't always pan out, but sometimes they do, I have drafted a bust like Delmon Young and stud like Pujols and Prior (remember he was at one point in time healthy). I was also dumb enough to draft Wieters last year, but smart enough to draft Sandoval. My point is this these top prospects in a keeper league are worth the gamble especially if you can find late round gems like Adam Lind last year, or work the waiver wire and find talent. Really if you are good at working the waiver wire, you can offset a bust or two on draft day. The reward is very high for Heyward especially in a keeper.

The Cow


I'm a fan of reaching early on the young guys I want in a keeper. I took Kershaw in my keeper draft in Round 11 last year and everyone thought it was too early. Heyward in Round 10 though seems really steep. Guys like Carlos Gonzalez go around there who are also young with lots of upside. CarGo doesn't have nearly as much as Heyward but I'm only a fan of reaching for the young stud in keeper drafts if he's in the same tier for possible current year production. I don't think Heyward is for this year. Guys who took Price and Wieters were burned badly last year by drafting them that high. Loading up on veterans to win now is a bad strategy for a keeper but being that guy who tries to grab the high upside youth 3-4 rounds before anyone else would is also dangerous. If it was between Brad Hawpe and Jason Heyward, I'll take my chances on Heyward but in Round 10, there's still a number of great players available that makes reaching early on a prospect not worth the risk for me. If one guy is drafting Heyward that early, I'd rather try my hand at drafting the Adam Linds of the world later on. Heyward looks great but there's always a good chance you could be stuck waiting around 2 years for him to put it together like we are with Bruce. Top prospects not exploding on the fantasy scene is the norm.

If you're playing in your vanilla 12 team yahoo league with 3 OF and 1 UTIL, I guess you can reach really early on the Heywards of the world because it's hard not to end up with studs off the waiver wire, there's much more room for error. When the leagues get deeper though, I don't want to knowingly jeopardize my chances of winning this year.
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