Ender wrote:Generally speaking HR/RBI are the most reliable stats for H2H and SB and AVG are the least reliable. K/WHIP are the most reliable for pitching, SV/W/ERA are the least reliable with ERA becoming more reliable when you have a lot of starts(streaming in daily, stacking 2 start guys in weekly etc).
As for SB, one important thing to remember is that SB is probably the easiest hitting stat in the game to pick up off the free agent list. It is pretty rare to pick up a 20+ HR guy mid season in a deeper league but there are always 20 SB guys available every season. Most young players that come up steal at least 5 bases if not 10-15, even a guy like Fielder had 7 his first season. There are always going to be more SB available during the season than your projection pool suggests.
In H2H the problem with that, that if you are looking to pick up that stolen base guy, you already lost several weeks in that cat. Theres no way to make that right, while in roto you can make up ground.
Identifying the need is not enough.
By the time you identified the problem, and that could be like after like 5-6 weeks, you either faced mediocre stealing teams and mostly lost (cause if you win you dont feel the need to improve I suppose), and now facing those with the real speed, you wont stand a chance, or you faced the speedy teams and you got beaten up so bad that pickin up a mediocre one dimensional 15-20 SB guy seemingly wont do much good but hurt in other categories.
And thats only the half of it.
Identifying that runner, who will help you the most is not that simple either.
My observation that players use to steal more early in the season and less towards the end. So you might see a guy on waivers who already has 8 SBs after 6 weeks (
), but might give you 7-10 the rest of the way. That might give you a rare win, but not going to save you in H2H.
My advise is to draft a team that is at least in the middle of the pack speedvise in your league, and a reliable, high octane speedster wont hurt on draft day either, for the right price.