Captain Furtah wrote: swyck wrote:
B-Chad wrote:I always seem to be blown away every year looking at the early MDP's and how far off some players fall from where I'd personally rank them. The greatest instance I noticed in being neglected just glancing through the list is Brett Anderson at 225. I'll go out on a limb and say that when I take the time to compile a 5x5 list and where I have players ranked he'll be 75 or more spots higher.
Me, I'd love it if his MDP was around 225 by the time I'm drafting, which would mean he's probably mine.
The big question is how do you use this information? I expect this number to change but lets say it doesn't, his MDP remains at 225, and you have him ranked at 150. That would be about the 13th round in a 12 team league, while 225 would be 18th round. Do you try to stretch him out a few rounds and try to get him say in the 16th or 17th, play it safe with a 14th or 15th, or do you draft him where you like him in the 13th, assuming there are no higher rated players available from your list?
I'd probably go with the 15-16 round, maybe even 14th. You may be able to let him drop a little bit more, but 18 would be the average meaning ~ half have him higher and half lower right. If you can identify these cases and take all your guys 1-2 rounds later that will be a nice advantage for you...
This is a fair assessment for sure. Something I'd weigh heavily is who is in the league I'm in. If it is a new league where I don't know the managers and their likes and dislikes or what criteria they may use for grading players from past team makeup... I'd probably gamble less and reach a bit more to take him very close to where I have the player ranked. Something else I'd look at (assuming the info is available like it is at Mock Draft Central) is the highest they were selected, and match that against where I have them ranked. For instance, Anderson's MDP may be 225, but his high might be 50 picks earlier at 150, and if I have him ranked as my 125th best player, I'll be sure to grab him before pick 150, likely the closest pick I hold before that selection. Now if I hold pick 152 or so, I might "push it," so to speak, I might not.
After the last few years of fantasy baseball, I've come to a solid conclusion, that some will agree with and others disagree likely: If you have a guy ranked significantly higher then their MDP when doing your player valuations going into the season, it is 100% worth it to reach some and assure you get that player. While that player won't always work out, I'd be much happier buying into them and having them fail and trusting my player evaluations, then passing on a player I had high expectations because I didn't want to reach 1-4 rounds and watching that player have a monster season on another owners' roster. Some of my greatest satisfaction in fantasy season's is winning with players I successfully pegged as breakout candidates. I tend not to go overboard, as I've seen some owners reach over and over again to try and hit a "homerun," so to speak, only to hit 1 out of 5 players and finish middle of the pack or worse. While it is satisfying, even gratifying to hit a breakout player, the name of the game is still winning.