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Curtis Pride wrote:Cano has much more power, a better park, a better lineup surrounding him. Roberts is starting to decline.
But you ignore my point. The three are so close that it's worthless to waste much effort ranking the three of them. Just wait and take the last of them.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
Curtis Pride wrote:Steal for next year will be Dan Uggla.
If you look at his peripherals, his K rate is declining, while his BB rate is improving. He had some hellish bad luck, and I think he puts up a .280/30/100 next year and will end up a top 5 2b.
Curtis Pride wrote:Uggla had a 20% k rate in the minors, so I think his 33% k rate was the anomaly.
His walk rates have steadily increased, and so I think further progression in his K rates can also be assumed.
Before this year, he also had a .307 career BABIP.
So if he has a 25% K rate, a .305 BABIP, maintains his power, that's a .270 BA.
Now if we assume good luck, as opposed to the bad luck he had this year, and maybe a little growth in power (or a different park), I think .280 isn't outlandish. I certainly bet he'll hit closer to .280 than the .243 he hit this year.
With his power, and a 26% k rate, he'd need a .328 BABIP to hit .280. Which is a matter of about 10-15 more lucky hits over a 6 month season than a .300 BABIP
J35J wrote:I'd be suprised if Uggla hit .265. He'll be 30 years old this year and has hit over .260 once. I think he'll improve upon last year but to predict anything over .260 is probably just wishful thinking....sure he can do it but he's just not that good of a hitter...poor LD% and high K% doesn't equal a very high avg. You can pretty well count on 30/95/95 though, which is nice out of the 2B spot.
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