Alright, I finally have a second to post a response. I'll start by saying I hope I didn't come off as snarky with my comments, I just wanted to bring to light a different set of statistics that I believe shine more favorably on Pedroia and Roberts then Cano. I'll also add that this will be the last that I discuss these three for now as I feel like I'm beating a dead horse.
DaSh 1s wrote:Right, but despite these improvements, his OBP still dropped, and his SLG% still dropped dramatically. While he may have walked more and K’d less, his OBP was still less than we has in 2008. I use OPS to measure players, because its accounts for most of their percentages. 2009 was still Pedroia’s worst OPS of his career, no matter how you slice it. Pointing to the fact he walked more and improved his K rate, he still took a step back. I am not going to pick out BB rates and K rates, when the over all numbers still aren’t there.
Alright, for starters I don't understand why you would point to "overall numbers," I would hope that since you are using OPS+ you understand that statistics such as runs scored, rbi's and sometimes batting average are actually driven by luck not skill. You constantly point to Cano's poor BA with RISP, so clearly he must not be clutch, the "overall numbers" say so, end of story? I don't think so. In projecting future statistical out put I'd argue it's much more important to look at the stats and numbers a player can control such as walk rate, k rate and balls in play rate (GB/FB/LD rates). In Pedroia's case, he had a minor regression in LD rate (21.2% in 2008 to 20.0% in 2009). He also got more lift and turned some of his GB's into FB's (2008 he hit 42.9/36.0 GB/FB and in 2009 he hit 39.2/40.8 GB/FB, which likely bodes well for a slight bump in HR's going forward as a HR can not be hit on a GB). I would argue that is a slight step forward, offsetting his minor LD regression. His OBP only dropped slightly in spite of a .030 drop in BA average (.376 OBP in 2008 to .371 in 2009). Given that his BABIP fell from .336 in 2008 to .300 in 2009, which is a steep fall considering his LD rate dropped marginally. For comparisons sake his career BABIP is .316, so even matching his career BABIP and not his high water mark in 2008 you'd expect a higher batting average and thus a higher OBP. Also, his slugging percentage clearly also dropped because of not recording as many hits. Once again, little changed in his skillset, except the fact he drew more walks and struck out less, so I'd say his 2009 BABIP appears to be an outlier to this point (albeit with a small sample size, so perhaps his '07 and '08 appear to be outliers when it is all said and done). So I'm going to continue to disagree that he regressed last year, and in fact say that he appeared to improve judging by the factors he could control.
DaSh 1s wrote:While I do agree with most of this, your still wording it your advantage. Cano posted BA’s of 297, 342, 306, 271, 320. If he posts an average close to or above 300 in his 6th year would you be satisfied enough? You point to BABIP numbers, but the same can be said for Pedroia . In 2009 Cano’s BABIP was .323 and translated into a 320 average. In 2008 when Pedroia hit .326 his BABIP was 336. “In looking a little deeper at his monster average seasons you see big BABIP numbers” Why don’t you look at Pedroia’s spike in BABIP when he posted his career high in AVG?
How about Pedroia’s 07 BABIP was .334 and avg was .317? How can we say say Cano is getting lucky and his BA are driven by BABIP, when Pedroia is the same case?
The reason I am so dismissive of his 2008 season was because he couldn’t do anything right. I watched most of his AB’s that season, and it was a pure mental state of funk. I am using it as a outlier because I believe there were other factors in Robbie’s game that season but that alone could just be me.
I am satisfied that Cano is a hitter who will bat around .300. I don't believe he's a .340 hitter, and I think .320 is even a bit high. I also noted the same could be said for Pedroia, and pointed out that I understand why his BABIP sits above .300 and is actually .316 for his career. I don't understand how Cano's BABIP is so high. Clearly it's not completely luck as he has a career BABIP of .324 in over 2800 career AB's, meaning it is a skill of sorts. However, given his lower LD rate then Pedroia's (not huge, but lower none the less), and higher GB rate (which would seem to spell out for a guy who isn't legging out infield singles with his blazing speed) I'm a bit surprised by his BABIP, more so then Pedroia's, so yes, to some degree his BABIP does seem to be a bit luck driven. I'll repeat this once again so it isn't lost on anyone and misinterpreted, I don't believe Cano's BABIP is entirely luck driven given his number of AB's to this point in his career, but I do believe it is a tad bit high given his balls in play rates. What that all boils down to is that I believe Pedroia is a safer bet for a batting average that eclipses .300, possibly north of .310. When it is all said and done, the batting average between the two will likely be splitting hairs as they'll likely be a very negligable difference between the two. Finally, I really don't care about your anecdotal evidence as you aren't a scout, so what you saw may have been completely different from what someone more qualified then both you and I saw. It certainly is something you should take into account in doing your player valuations for next year, but not something that really brings a lot to the argument IMO.
DaSh 1s wrote:This is a spot where I highly disagree.
Cano’s Home/Away Slugging
Pedroia’s Home/Away Slugging
Pedroia’s career SLG Home/Away (.505/.406) 99 point variance, while Cano’s career Home/Away (.480/.479) 1 point variance.
Without a doubt, I am more sold on Cano’s raw power than Dustin’s. Dustin has proven that most of his extra base hits have been a product of Fenway park and the variance in his numbers are pretty telling from year to year. Cano’s raw power has been improving year to year and it hasn’t been a pure product of new Yankee stadium (14 Home HRs 11 Road HRs 2009). It’s without a doubt, Cano “should” hit more homers than Pedroia, and the parity will be greater than 2-5, IMO. Pedroia’s road SLG is just is not enough to keep up with Robbie’s and he should pull away with that category hands down.
The split severity for Pedroia is interesting, but to roto leaguers, means very little as long as he continues to slug the hell out of the ball at home and post a solid final line. For those in H2H leagues, it is certainly something to note. I'm not sure what Cano having more "raw power," has to do with anything here. His HR/FB rate was a career high last year and a steep jump from the previous season. He is entering the prime power years of his career in all likelihood, but given the huge disparity between his HR/FB rate in 2008 and 2009, I'm not ready to annoint him a perennial 20+ HR hitter. He clearly displayed that he is capable of doing it last year, but maybe last year was the ceiling, I honestly don't know.
DaSh 1s wrote:I used OPS+ to measure the overall production of the two players, since it would be pretty hard to compare a lead off hitter to a number 7 hitter. But the matter I, Cano scored 12 less runs batting 7th than Pedroia did batting leadoff/2 hole? The Red Sox were not as good as the Yankee offense last year, Walked Less, Struck Out More, Scored Less, and SLGed Less, and hit 30 less homers. There were simply lesss opportunities to score in the Red Sox lineup. Key Losses, to both sides (Bay, Matsui). Without Bay (or another impact hitter) means less runs for Pedroia, and without Matsui, Cano now becomes the Left Handed hitter behind A-Rod to complete Girardi’s emphasis of L/R splits in his lineup
A lot of presumption in this quote. Neither team has officially lost any of the players in question. In fact, I would argue it is likely that both the Yankees and Red Sox will either retain the services of their sluggers, or replace one of them with Holliday. The Yankees should be expected to cut ties with either Matsui or Damon, but not necessarily both. The Red Sox could certainly re-sign Bay, or make a play for Holliday (I'll add that the Yankees could let both Matsui and Damon both leave and make a play for Holliday as well). I also find it interesting that you point to the Yankees lineup strength but don't point out the fact that it could prevent Cano from hitting in the heart of the order so to speak. Pedroia will clearly hit in the 2 spot for the Red Sox, Robinson Cano will clearly NOT hit in the 3 or 4 spot, and if the Yankees were to retain the services of Matsui or sign Holliday wouldn't hit in the 5 spot either. Even if Matsui isn't re-signed, and Holliday doesn't land in NY, you alluded to the possibility of Posada hitting 5, in all honesty, the Yankees stacked lineup could hinder Cano to some degree (namely if he hits lower in the lineup, he'll receive less AB's then Pedroia, there are obvious benefits to having a stacked lineup as he'll likely see guys on base when he is at the dish). I also think in Pedroia's case the Red Sox lineup depth isn't as important. If Ellsbury proves to be a capable leadoff hitter and the Red Sox either retain Bay or sign Holliday, he'll have V-Mart, Youkilis and Bay/Holliday hitting behind him, which means he will still get his runs scored. Also, remember it isn't completely out of the question the Red Sox make a big splash and go after Adrian Gonzalez, they were rumored to be a suitor at the trade deadline, and if they are trully pulling out of the Halladay sweepstakes, they could move on to him as a target.
DaSh 1s wrote:It leaves the count 3 cats to 2 cats but your dismissing the fact that there should be a noticeable gap in two of those categories. Robbie has been way more consistent with his SLG percentages and should take the Home Run category.
Pedroia logged 72 RBIs while hitting .327/.418/.440 RISP in 2009 and Robbie had 85 RBIs despite 207/242/332 RISP in 2009. Despite dwarfing Cano in all the ratios how the heck did Cano manage to produce more RBI’s than Pedroia? Who has a better chance at outperforming there ratios next year? Mind you with Matsui gone, Cano likely will be hitting 5th against RHP this season. Not sure if Girardi will use Posada in the 5 hole against LHP yet?
Given the slight difference in runs, and about ~15 more SB, I feel safer assuming Cano should out produce Pedroia significantly in RBIs and HR. And largely I am more convinced Cano’s BA hasn’t been driving by his BABIP, as much as Dusty’s has.
Don’t get me wrong. Both players are premiere 2B and will produce accordingly, I am just going to hedge my bets on Cano this season because I think the difference in RBI and HR total will give him greater value then the minimal Run Difference and the extra bags.
Significant difference in RBI's and HR's but only a "slight" difference in runs scored? I thought I was the one that was wording things favorably for my argument? Last year was a career year in runs scored for Robinson Cano and he STILL scored 12 fewer runs then Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't call that slight, especially considering if Pedroia had anymore luck in his BABIP last year, that gap would have been even larger between a career year in Cano's runs scored and essentially the norm in runs scored for Pedroia over the last two. I would say it is easy to project Pedroia for a significant advantage in both runs scored and stolen bases, moreso then I'd project Cano to hit a significantly larger number of HR's then Pedroia. I will concede that Cano will almost certainly drive in more runs then Pedroia given where they each hit in the lineup, but I think runs+rbi's will fall slightly in favor of Pedroia. Also given that Pedroia will steal significantly more bags then Cano and should hit for a slightly higher average (IMO given the stats I've laid out) that seems to more then make up for the difference in HR's, which last year was a difference of 10, and I don't believe will be larger this year, if anything I think he'll be lucky to maintain that large a gap. Pedroia's gap in SB will almost certainly be over 10, perhaps as many as 15 in SB's.
DaSh 1s wrote:How can you sit there and assume his power numbers continue to rise at the age of 32? This is absurd. He SLG 515 at the age of 27 in 2005 with a LD rate of 27.4. and came out with 18 home runs. His SLG for 09 was 451.
His 2009 LD rate was pretty much the same over the last four years (21.6, 23.9, 19.5, 20.9). How can you honestly expect his Power to rise? Even with a LD rate of 27.4 he had only 18 homers? But you expect him to best 16 Home Runs to rise next year? On what assumption?
Despite being better than Dusty’s and Robbie’s, B-Robs BB rates have been declining and K rates haves been increasing over the last three years, you aren’t worried about the age of 32?
I can say that I assume his power continues to rise at the age of 32 because his ISO continues to rise every season since 2006 (2006: .124; 2007: 1.42; 2008: .154; 2009: .168). What is absurd is that you point at his career high in SLG percentage and neglect what he's done statistically since then. I also find it funny that you noticeably ommitted his HR total in 2009 after pointing to his career high 18 HR's in 2005. For those wondering, his HR total with his .451 SLG in '09 was 16, two fewer then 2005. His BB and K rates have been regressing some, but the large change came from 2007 to 2008, it changed marginally from 2008 to 2009, so I'm not greatly concerned, though it would be nice to see him walk a bit more, even if his new found slugging results in a slightly higer K rate then what he was posting in 2007. I'll also point out one more flaw, HR's are the result of FB's, not LD's, there is a reason for measuring HR/FB and not HR/LD, HR's don't result from LD's. Given that he's adding lift to his contact and hitting more FB's, it would seem logical to believe his power would go up.
DaSh 1s wrote:This again is another assumption. Despite having 40 more plate appearances, and batting leadoff and He only had seven more runs that Robby? Brian Roberts 09 OBP was .356 to Cano’s .352? Cano’s respective career OBP [320 (rook), 365, 353,305,352], Despite that 08 OBP, Cano’s OBPs are right there. If Roberts continutes the trends of diminishing walks and increasing SO, I don’t know how you can anoint Robert’s a better OBP man going forward? Especially when Cano’s BB rate improves (lol, only slightly year to year)
I'm assuming you didn't read what I wrote at all. B-Rob's OBP is not nearly as reliant on BA as Cano's is, and given that fact, he is a safer bet to post a higher OBP then Cano since Cano is allergic to drawing a walk and B-Rob is not. As recently as 2007 and 2008 Brian Roberts posted OBP of .377 and .378 respectively. Cano has never had an OBP above .365, which is his career high that he posted in a year in which his batting average was .342. So yes, I would argue there is a clear difference in OBP going forward that favors Brian Roberts. I'll also point out that his .356 OBP last year came in a year he hit .283, his lowest mark since 2004. Given that he hit .290 or better in 2007 and 2008, I believe he is still capable of hitting .290 or better (his LD rate is still fantastic), couple that with a much better BB rate then Cano, and you have a large gap in OBP, which will in turn lead to a large gap in runs scored.
DaSh 1s wrote:For some reason, so quick to dismiss Cano’s career .339 BA to Roberts career .284? Roberts batted above .300 once in all of his nine seasons. Cano’s done it three out of five seasons, and one logged in at .297
I am just going to ignore this statement.
Ok, so I went a bit off the reservation with that statement. I do still think Brian Roberts checks in with a BA in the .290 area (.285-.295) and think that Cano hits around .310, so that is a significant gap, albeit much smaller then last years gap. Which is really what I should have said in the first place
DaSh 1s wrote:There Orioles are still a bad team.
Yankees to the O’s:
BB% 10.5 to a 8.4,
K% 17.9 to a 18.0
OBP 362 to a 332
SLG 478 to a 415
How much improvement, do you see that would allow Robert to dominate Robbie in runs? Both had the similar OBP?
I think Roberts OBP will be noticeably higher then Cano's as I expect Roberts to hit around .290 and continue to post a much better walk rate then Cano (who is allergic to walks). I believe that with a higher OBP, and an improving young core behind him, he'll score more runs. I'll also point out that lineup depth is much more important to Cano then to Roberts as Roberts runs scored will be a product of the next three hitters behind him (Jones, Markakis, Wieters/Reimold in all likelihood). I expect each of those 4 hitters who may hit in the 3 slots behind Roberts to improve, thus helping Roberts runs scored total.
DaSh 1s wrote:Roberts did have a great year in terms of RBI, but again over the last couple of years his RBI totals have been (79,57,57,55,73). How can you expect another 73 RBIs? Cano has some OBP monsters in front of him as in Jeter (406) , Teix (383), Alex (402), Jorge (363). Like we said before, he was abysmal with RISP (207/242/332 RISP) and still walked away with 85 RBIs. If Cano can improve on that facet of his game, he should dwarf Roberts in RBI numbers. Especially with what Roberts has hitting in front of him.
I won't dispute Cano will drive in more runs, my entire argument was that Roberts would post more runs+rbi, which I believe.
DaSh 1s wrote:I also think it is entirely possible that Roberts matches Cano's HR total next year given his upward trending ISO, higher FB rate then career mark posted last year (42.1% to 38.2%) and a HR/FB rate that exceeded his career mark last year (7.3% to 5.5%). All those things make me believe Roberts is capable of 15-20 HR's, which would put him in line to challenge for a new career high (current high 18).
A LOT to assume.
I don't think it's a lot to assume at all. I think it's just a case of looking at the numbers on fan graphs carefully and identifying a trend. Upward trending ISO+more FB's+higher HR/FB rate= more HR's. He hit 16 HR's last year, a number that fell only 2 short of his career high 18. I see no reason to believe he can't continue this upward trend and approach 18-20 HR's, which would either match or break his career high.
DaSh 1s wrote:Unless Roberts has a career year in home runs, I don’t know how you can peg Roberts ahead of both Dusty and Cano. Both Dusty and Robbie will log 20+ RBI than him, post very similar Run totals, and are a sure bet above 15 Home runs. Most likely both will out perform his AVG as well. Roberts has never been the one for a high average.
The points you listed are gigantic gambles in assuming
Roberts is an average offensive player, his value is predominately his SB numbers which have been on a rapid decline these past few years. He definitely serves fantasy value, but it won’t be because he is likely to outperform the other duo but because he will fall in terms of rounds. I’d rather be a year early on a player than a year to late. SB have went 50->40->30 over the past three years. If they decline to say about 25 next year, you might have a 2B fully capable of a line 280 100 13 70 with 25 bags.
The points I listed are not gigantic gambles in assuming, they are a case of studying stats and identifying trends, big difference. Roberts' greatest value is his SB numbers, but simply pinning his value on SB's is foolish considering how many runs he scores. His SB numbers have declined the past few years, but not for lack of success, rather lack of opportunity. Last year B-Rob stole 81% of the bases he attempted to steal, that was a 1% improvement on his 2008 success rate. Given his drop in OBP from 2008 to 2009, it's safe to say his SB drop was from lack of opportunity, not declining skill. I don't believe he'll match 50 SB's again, but I think he'll steal 30-35 bases again, especially since I think he'll hit .290 this year thus improving his OBP. If his success rate had dropped, I would have concerns that he may steal less bags next year, but given that's not the case, I'm not that concerned.
It has been fun going back and forth with you Dashiz, but I think I'm beginning to re-hash the same points, and think I need to draw the line for myself here. I'll likely discuss these guys again, but not in this thread, and not at this time. It looks like we'll have to agree to disagree (at least I hope we can agree on this
). I'll finish it off with a quick projection for each of the three for next year at this point (which will almost certainly change when free agents sign and things shake out a bit more).
Brian Roberts: 115-20-72 .290 35
Dustin Pedroia: 120-17-78 .320 17
Robinson Cano: 90-22-95 .310 2
As you can see, I like all three to post solid numbers, including Robbie Cano (don't you know
). My argument was never that Robinson Cano wasn't a top flight 2B, just that I liked B-Rob and Pedroia better. Of the three, I even think Roberts will get drafted the latest, making him the greatest value.