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12 Prospects to Rank

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Re: 12 Prospects to Rank

Postby slickterp » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:33 pm

Montero - special, special bat
Alvarez - power, but K's alot, some concerns about that at higher levels
Santana - C, and good all around at the plate
Rondon - love this guy
Lawrie - showed some serious stuff at 2B, always a thin position
Drabek - upside is huge
Morrison - should be a steady-Eddy 30 HR guy
Taylor - all the tools, but no spot right now
Frazier - can play all over, value might depend on where he ends up
Martin (although mostly b/c I kow the least about him)
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Re: 12 Prospects to Rank

Postby cardinal1975 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:54 pm

mblax10 wrote:I know things are slow around here, but the Montero/Alvarez debate is pretty fruitless. They're both uber prospects that should both be in everybody's top 10's this winter. Picking one over the other comes down to personal preference.

Comparing both Montero & Santana to V-Mart exemplifies why making MLB comparisons is generally bad practice. Is every hit first catcher with questionable defense the next V-Mart? Montero is much bigger, has much more raw power and much more advanced skills at the plate for his age. He really has a special bat that will have value even as a DH. That being said, I slightly prefer Alvarez because he likely stays at 3B, has enormous power and a great approach at the plate. I'm willing to write off his low AVG in High A to being board by low competition. Not the best thing attitude wise, but he should be an all-star hitter real soon. Either way both are elite and should be more like 1a & 1b not 1 & 2.

I agree with all of your points with the exception of one. I think it's pretty safe to say when a player strikes out in over 25% of his at bats in the minor leagues, he likely won't hit for average in the majors unless he is getting tremendously lucky with his babip. If .240-.270ish is hitting for average I am with you.....if you are expecting better than that consistently I think the numbers will tell you otherwise. His upside is a 40 homerun hitter that strikes out 170 plus times. Despite the k's those stats have great value at any position but the numbers do not bear out Alvarez hitting for average most years.
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