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Prospects Top 20s

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Re: Prospects Top 20s

Postby FouLLine » Mon Nov 09, 2009 3:39 am

kab21 wrote:I guess I'm not a big fan of a prospect that has an unexplained loss of velocity (this is a concern imo) and averages 89.2mph in his cup of coffee when his secondary offerings are average at best. I'll move him back up when he starts hitting closer to the mid-90's or he develops his secondary stuff more. I do still have him in the top 20 so I think he's still a good prospect, just not great.

The Kid was 19 this year and he logged 141.33 innings (24.33 in A+, 107 in AA, and 10 in the MLB) and a total of 283 innings in his 2 year old pro career. Granted that was less than his 141.67 innings the year before that is still a ton of innings on a young arm.

So when he drops a couple MPH on average at the end of the year it is understandable. The best thing about that is he still pitched great even while being down velocity and pitching against better competition. When you compare Bumgarner to other pitching "phenoms" and/or "prodigies" (young pitchers with fast success into the majors in my recent memory) you will see he put a whole ton of innings on his arm in 2 seasons at a very young age.

Madison Bumgarner 141.33 innings at 19 (24.33 in A+, 107 in AA, and 10 in the MLB). 283 pro innings by 19. Debuted in the MLB when he was 19.

Clayton Kershaw when he was 19 he pitched 122 innings (97.33 IPs in A and 24.67 IPs in A+) that year and only 159 total pro IPs by 19. Didn't debut in the MLB until he was 20.

Rick Porcello threw 125 innings in A+ ball when he was 19 and that was his first year in pro ball. He like Kershaw didn't see the MLB until he was 20.

Brett Anderson threw 120.33 IP's (81.33 in A ball and 39 in A+ ball) when he was 19 and that also was his first year in pro ball. He didn't see MLB action until he was 21.

Trevor Cahill threw 105 IPs in A ball when he was 19 and only 114 in his pro career at that point. He like Brett Anderson didn't pitch in the bigs unitl he was 21.

Jair Jurrjens threw 142.67 IPs in A ball when he was 19 and 221.33 IPs in his pro career at that point. He didn't debut in the majors until the end of the seas when he was 21.

Yovani Gallardo threw 121.33 IPs in A ball when he was 19 and 148 in his pro career at that point. He too didn't pitch in the majors until he was 21.

Felix Herandez threw 172.33 IPs (88 in AAA and 84.33 in the MLB) and threw 333.33 IPs (this was over 3 years). Needless to say he pitched in the pros in the middle of the season when he was 19.

Zack Greinke threw only 87 IPs in A+ and only 98.33 in his pro career at that point. He got to the majors when he was 20 (he pitched 145 IPs in that year).

C.C. Sabathia threw 146.33 IPs (56 at A+ and 90.33 at AA) and 232.67 IPs in his pro career at that point (18 rookie ball IPs when he was 17). C.C. opened the season when he was 20 in the MLB.

Roy Halladay threw 164.67 IPs in A+ ball when he was 19 and 215 IPs total in his career. He debuted in the bigs at the end of the season when he was 21.

This was a list compiled off of the top of my head (guys I knew that made it to the bigs at an early stage in there life). I think cross referenced the stats for comparison.

Only 1 pitcher on this pretty impressive list made it to the MLB at an earlier stage in his life. That was Felix Hernandez.

Only 2 pitchers threw for more innings when they were 19. Roy Halladay (164.67 in A+) and Jair Jurrens (142.67 in A ball). Compared to Bumgarner's 141.33 total (24.33 at A+, 107 at AA, and 10 at the MLB level). So his innings might have been slightly lower (still a ton for that young of an arm) but he pitched at a higher level than both of these pitchers.

Again the only pitcher to accumulate more IPs pitched before the age of 20 was Felix Hernandez with 333.33 IPs to Madison's 283 IPs. The next highest was C.C. Sabathia with 232.67 IPs.

No pitcher averaged more IPs per by the end of the season in which they were 19 than Bumgarner. Bumgarner averaged 141.5 IPs exactly a year at this stage in his career. The next highest pitcher from this list was Felix Hernandez with 111.11 per year.

So as you can see they pushed the envelope with the kid's arm. Why do you think they he didn't pitch more innings this year than last year? As a usual rule of thumb a pitcher will build his innings up about 30 IPs more every year. But Bumgarner had so many innings logged on his arm at such a young age the Giants didn't even feel necessary to press the issue. Especially when he was experiencing a loss of velocity.

As for him only being in your top 20, I can't keep him out of my top 3 let alone my top 5.

For me pitching prospect wise. It goes Bumgarner and Strasburg, in either order. Then a huge gap to barley prospect Brian Matusz. Then an equally sized gap then there are a ton of very good pitching prospects who are all pretty close in talent.

In my eyes the only players who could arguably be considered better prospects in general than Madison Bumgarner would be Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasbug, Jesus Montero, Mike Stanton, and Buster Posey (mainly due to catcher eligibility not necessarily due to overall talent). Otherwise I feel like guys such as Brian Matusz, Carlos Santana, Neftali Feliz, Pedro Alvarez, and etc. are all a big tier below those top 6 prospects just due to not possessing as much upside.

Just to throw my top 5 out there as of now.

1. Jason Heyward - I tend to favor hitters personally over pitchers other wise the top 3 could go in any order.
2. Madison Bumgarner - He's younger than Strasburg and shown more success in AA than Strasburg has in the AFL
3. Stephen Strasburg - Pitching well in the AFL but has gotten tagged for a few too many HRs in this hitter friendly league (all 3 in one game). His first pro ball taste small sample size too.
4. Jesus Montero - Catcher or not he is the 2nd best hitting prospect.
5. Mike Stanton - Dominated A+ ball but showed struggles in AA. Put up impressive AFL numbers over a small sample. A 1.147 OPS over 23 ABs 1 HR and 4 SBs.

All 5 of these guys have huge ceilings and are developed well beyond there age level.
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Re: Prospects Top 20s

Postby kab21 » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:52 pm

Call me old-fashioned but I like an elite prospect as you describe Bumgarner to have at least one above average pitch. Maybe that's his fastball but their were reports of his velocity being down well before he was called up last year. Sometimes velocity loss is due a dead arm but sometimes there might be a hidden injury. I'll wait to see the velocity come back before I move him back up. I'm not convinced and I definitely don't have in a group with Stras, Heyward, Montero and those types.
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Re: Prospects Top 20s

Postby Johnny Tuttle » Wed Nov 11, 2009 8:24 am

I share some concern over his FB, but I've asked about Bum to many prospect mavens in chats, and at least one described similar periods of reduced velo for pitching prospects as a relatively common occurrence.

You can see from my Mauer thread that I'm prepared to trade him in the right circumstance, but as an owner of Bum in a dynasty, I'm unconcerned.
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