thejusman1 wrote:Dan Lambskin wrote:thejusman1 wrote:
Geez, you guys are anal about definitions. Go ahead and trade for Carlos Gonzalez for your playoff stretch run and into the playoffs. Let me know how that works out for you. The point I was trying to make is that an unproven batter who has played less than the full season last year while batting .242, and only has 171 ABs this year is an unreliable, unproven, green, "rookie" option. Think of it like relying on Scherzer or Price for the stretch-run. You can spout all you want about the exact definitions of "rookie" players, bring up smart-mouthed responses quoting MLB, but I don't think there's any argument in saying Carlos Gonzales is a very green, unproven, and risky option, and to have traded anything of value to acquire him is not a wise fantasy move. In my book, his overall inexperience makes him a rookie, no different than the other mid-season call-ups last year, and like the others, more inclined to be a bust than a boom.
But, nah, since he's played over the 45 days on an MLB roster, he's not a rookie at all.
ahh...so like Ryan Braun a few years ago...i hope no teams relied on him
Hey, I'm Dan Lambskin, let me bring up another example that isn't applicable because Braun played over 113 games, logging in 450+ ABs in his "rookie year," and CRUSHED the ball and has gone on to become an everyday, franchise, elite slugger, whereas Carlos Gonzales had a very forgettable 302 AB debut last year, and has logged less than 175ABs this year. There are literally hundreds of examples of hot-hand rookies streaking for a few weeks that never amount to anything more than a backup/utility player. If you want to pay to acquire that via trade, be my guest. If you want to thrust that player into your playoff lineups, I hope I'm facing you that week. But selective memory of the very few breakout players who make a significant impact their rookie year is ignoring the overwhelming statistical evidence pointing in the opposite direction.
Here's a more illustrative example:
Chris Davis, 295AB's last year, .285-51-17-55, taken around the 5th-6th round in this year's drafts, even though his K:BB ratio was very poor, and you can still grab a lot of proven, veteran talent in that round. He's the most hyped bust of 2009, and the FA is littered with such examples.
i'm not saying the guys a stud or should be taken with a top 50 pick next year or that you should trade [instert proven vetern] for him, but at this point in the year playing the hot hand is a fine strategy. what if you're in a "must win" game to make the playoffs...you starting a proven vet who's slumping or a guy tearing the cover off the ball the last 2 weeks? if you catch him at the end of his streak...oh well, better luck next year. same with Roto...if you're locked in a tight battle throw the names out the window and play the guy that's producing