BuckeyeSal wrote: And my last sentence meant that odds are he hits at least 30+ HRs and has 90+ RBI next year if healthy which wouldn't be a bust even if he hit 250. It wouldn't be great but wouldn't be a Jimmy Rollins bust. On the other hand, there's a chance that he hits 280 like he did in year 1 and year 3 and goes 100/100. That to me seems more likely than him having a bust year, which for me would be less than 20HR and less than 90RBI with a bad BA. Do you really disagree?
OK, now you're just arguing what the definition of 'bust' is more than anything else, which I have no desire to waste my time doing.
But hey, if you don't mind 30-90-250 from your second round pick, then I imagine you'll spend a lot of time in the bottom half of your league. To me, those are not good numbers from your 2nd rounder. Thus, bust.
Even if he goes 100/35/100/280, that's not top 10 production. That's Carlos Lee with a whole lot more risk...
Like I mentioned, I wouldn't fault people for buying into the Reynolds hype, and it may very well pay off. He's just far too risky for my taste.