BuckeyeSal wrote:You kind of sound like you're talking out of your arse without actually looking at his numbers. In 07 he had 17Hrs and hit 279 in 366ABs. Last year he had 28HRs 97RBI, 87Rs and stole 11bases. Granted, his BA was poor but that's more than just HRs. Now in year 3 he's going to go .275 35HRs 105RBI, 100Rs and steal 22 bases. It really wasn't ever out of the blue. Eliminate the name and the mental bias you have and that's a stock that's currently going up. Also, the odds are good that Drew and JUp continue to improve and help his RBI and R totals. If you pick him next year 20th-25th you have a better chance of him ending up a top 10 player than you do him being a bust.
Really? Doubling your SB output and increasing your AVG 35 points can't be considered out of the blue? As Aqua noted, his K's will always make a 250 AVG less than a lock from year to year as well.
I understand you're a proponent for Reynolds as a top 25 guy next year, and that may very well happen, but that last statement is pretty ridiculous. You need to take into account not only a guy's ceiling, but his floor as well which is something you're clearly not doing. Like it or not, there is a considerable risk involved with drafting Reynolds that high.
Again, I won't fault someone for gambling and taking him in round 2. I just don't plan on it myself. But to say there's a better chance of him finishing top 10 than busting seems like you've bought into the hype a little too much...