New Zealand Fan wrote:
Guys that do repeatedly heat up after the break are
Only a small list though isn't it?
Tejada does have slightly better numbers after ASB than before (263/320/447/767 versus 277/343/474/817), but his second best month for hitting is May. While he was better after the ASB in 2002 and 2003, he was better before in 2001.
In 2002, Chavez was better pre ASB than post ASB. Lifetime, there's literally no difference in his numbers in April, June, July, and September. The only monthly variation is bad Mays and great Augusts.
Similarly, early in his career Bagwell was a noted "early starter". Lately, he's been slow to start. Pattern or random? It's just too hard to tell.
There is so much random variation in player's performance that it is really dangerous to make decisions based on these data.
I think it is random and I agree with you. As I said I wouldn't read too much into the hot and cold theories at all because every year there are plenty of exceptions to the rule.
I was just giving some recent examples where it has happened to a significant extent.
Also you are wrong Chavez did improve slightly in 2002 after the break in categories that matter in Fantasy BB.
Avg. before .271 after .280 OBP before .341 after .355
Not enough to be significant but there is still a pattern there.
His 2001 and 2003 2nd halves increased way more significantly and there is no doubt he is a second half player but who knows for sure if that trend continues this season. With the lineup around him he hasn't got the luxury of a slow start in 2004.