markj11 wrote:iltat wrote:Big Pimpin wrote:
It's not that I totally disagree, but you're talking about a kid who they are saying is legitimate competition for Strasburg as "best amateur prospect." Playing it off like he's "just some phenom" is borderline ridiculous. I mean you could say the same thing about the high school guys they're saying he's better than (Griffey, ARod, little Upton) and those guys seem to have turned out ok. I guess the jury is still out on Upton but it looks promising.
It's completely true that he may turn out to be the next Griffey or ARod. However, at the moment, he's only 16 and hasn't actually been tested. Until last year (or 2 years ago?), no one had heard of Strasburg either. He proved himself against a considerable step up from where this kid is, which was by playing high-end college ball. This kid's not even allowed into most Proms. The level of competition he's proven himself against so far isn't comparable to the level of competition Strasburg has seen. Thus:We'll see how he does in 2 years.
People aren't just looking at numbers. Size, athleticism, speed, 96MPH, does any of that have to do with competition?
Baserunning, control, other pitches, batting eye, drug testing. Does he put that 96MPH fastball at hitters' knees? Does he have another pitch that's capable of getting out hitters who can hit 96MPH? Can he hit 90+MPH? Can he pick up spin? Can he read a pickoff move? Can he get a jump? Does he get drug tested in HS?
Those are all things that won't matter in HS because he doesn't need them. You don't need to be able to hit 93-94MPH unless you're playing against top notch HS competition. You don't need another pitch if your competition can't hit your fastball. You don't need to worry about leaving it belt high. You don't need to worry about picking up a curve. You don't need to be able to get a real jump against crappy HS catchers. You don't necessarily get drug tested in HS (private schools almost assuredly don't, few public schools do, depending on state). Thus:
We'll see how he does in 2 years.