mblax10 wrote:ZOMG-One guy who was rushed sucked when he got to the majors. How about Justin Upton, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, etc. There are numerous examples of guys failing or succeeding after being rushed. Similarly, there are numerous guys who have failed or succeeded after spending too much time in the minors. Why? Tons of guys try and make the majors and many fail.
Last year Kila was 24, Lars was 20. Until you understand what that means, just give up. I'm also curious how you quantify "skillset and maturity for an easy transition into the majors."
BABIP with no history is a very poor choice of stat to try and deduce a hitter being lucky.
Butler is under Royals control for 4 more seasons. He may not even be arb eligible after this season depending on what the Super 2 cutoff is. Jacobs has 2 more arb seasons with the Royals. These 2 are blocking Kila. There's no reason to think Lars won't compete for a DH/1B spot to open 2010.
You are a fool to think (and to actually type ZOMG in what was may have almost been considered an intellectual debate) that more prospects flourish than get set back by being rushed. You are listing extremely rare and elite talent, Lars Anderson is not even close to this type of talent. Trust me there are way more guys who were ruined or set way back due to being rushed. There names just aren't as known for the obvious reason that they just aren't as good as these other guys. Brandon Wood had much better numbers than Lars did when he was 20 he actually broke the high A ball record for HRs. He still has yet to actualize in the majors. Please don't misenturpet this as me saying he's a bad player and will never have a MLB career because that isn't what I'm saying. I'm just pointing out the fact that Wood is a top prospect who had much better numbers than Lars but he still hasn't made it in the majors, for an assortment of reasons.
Until you understand that a year in AA doesn't mean a player is going to be a great MLB hitter, you need to rethink your whole approach here. You seem to be taking this whole thing person with the unnecessary "ZOMG's". My whole original intent was to bring light to the fact that Lars Anderson isn't hands down the better pick than Kila. Everyone over looked Kila and no one gave him a chance in this fight. I was just sticking up for the underdog with some key points.
Also BABIP has been proven to be on average for most players to be right around .300 with there BABIP, anything much higher than that is out of the norm and considered "lucky". In 2008 Lars Anderson's BABIP at high A ball was .367 (very high) and at AA it was .435 (even higher!). His BABIP this year is .295, so it just goes to show you.
Also Mike Jacobs was up for arbitration last year. Which is why the Marlin's traded him for so little. They just didn't want to pay him. The Royals gave him 3.5 million to avoid arbitration (Jacobs wanted 3.8 mil the Royals wanted 2.75 mil). Billy Butler signed a 1 year deal last year. So because of him signing a one year deal I am fairly certain he has the option to either file as an out right free agent or go to arbitration terms with his current team (still leaving FA an open option). Meaning reguardless of which, he is going to get paid. He only makes $421K right now, I'd think he'd get a bigger contract at least the size of Jacobs if not bigger (3.5 million). Also Butler getting a one year deal from the Royals means another one of two things, either 1) they want to lock him up for long term this offseason or 2) they don't intend on keeping him more than one more year which would be his one year contract from arbitration. Why would a low budget team like the Royals want to pay 2 players more money when Kila can come in and play for much cheaper for awhile?