mac-unit wrote: Pogotheostrich wrote: Oatsdad wrote:
I'm a Nats fan, and I wish they'd take someone else. The track record on 1st round pitchers is AWFUL. I'm old enough to remember how Ben McDonald was supposed to be the Greatest Pitcher Ever - how'd that turn out? Or Kris Benson?
Maybe Strasberg will be the exception to the rule, but that seems doubtful - we have decades of experience that says 1st round pitchers never pan out...
I'd be interested % if pitchers and hitters from the first round that don't pan out. I'd expect both are very high.
You can look at past drafts on wiki and there are more pitchers in the top 5 who don't pan out of past drafts then hitters.
And here are the pitchers who went number 1 overall since 1980. You can judge who worked out and who didn't.
Mike Moore (1981)
Tim Belcher (1983)
Shawn Abner (1984)
Andy Benes (1988)
Ben McDonald (1989)
Brien Taylor (1991)..Never reached the Majors
Paul Wilson (1994)
Kris Benson (1996)
Matt Anderson (1997)
Bryan Bullington (2002)
Luke Hochevar (2006)
David Price (2007)
Of course you can't really judge Price or Hochevar yet but the rest don't lie.
I am not saying Stras is going to be the next Paul Wilson but Oatsdad has a point.
And what's the point? He said he hopes the Nats pick someone other than Strasburg #1 because the track record of pitchers taken #1 (he said "first round pitchers", but I assume he meant #1 overall) is not good.
By all accounts, Strasburg is a once-a-generation type talent. He's been hyped and adored far more than any amateur pitcher in my memory. What sense does it make to reason, "Well, let's pass on him and take a hitter #1, because Kris Benson and Bryan Bullinger didn't pan out."
With the #1 pick you try and get the BEST player available. Strasburg is the consensus BEST player in the draft. For a Nats fan to actually not want him is silly. Just my 2 cents.