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Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby californiasunshine » Mon Jun 01, 2009 5:53 pm

Splendid61 wrote:Greinke still hasn't surrendered a HR this season despite giving up 21 HR last season.

According to Fangraphs, Greinke's FB% of 36.9 % represents only a slight decrease from last year (38.3 %) when 9.1% of fly balls hit against him went for HR's. Greinke is throwing more sliders and curveballs and less fastballs and change-ups. His First Pitch Strike % has increased, but only by 1.7%. Similar to his HR/FB ratio, Greinke's Infield Hit % is unsustainably low, clocking in at 3.3% this year (down from 6.3% in 2008).

Even for elite starting pitchers, it's unusual to consistently allow less than 15 HR per year. In the last 10 years, only 6 starters have surrendered less than 10 HR in 180+ innings.

Penny (2007) - 9 HR in 33 starts
Wang (2007) - 9 HR in 30 starts
Hudson (2004) - 8 HR in 27 starts
Zambrano (2003) - 9 HR in 32 starts
Pedro (2003) - 7 HR in 29 starts

When Liriano was devastating hitters with breaking balls in 2006, he still gave up 9 HR in 121 innings.


If you want to see what his ERA should be just look at his xFIP, FIP might also work but I'm not a 100% sure it corrects HR rates......anyways his xFIP is still in the 2's so he's just pitching damn good. Noone can pitch with an ERA around 1 without some luck.
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:16 pm

Actually, the FIP formula most commonly used right now is Image
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby bauermj » Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:31 pm

No one on the planet is capable of continuing to put up the run numbers Zack has so far. That being said, he clearly has the stuff and even with regression on some of these numbers he will likely remain a top 8 SP.
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby activechamp2006 » Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:17 pm

bauermj wrote:No one on the planet is capable of continuing to put up the run numbers Zack has so far. That being said, he clearly has the stuff and even with regression on some of these numbers he will likely remain a top 8 SP.


Numbers wise he will likely finish in the top 1-3 pitchers based purely off of his hot start.
From here on out I would still expect him to continue playing on a top 5 level
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Jun 05, 2009 7:52 pm

honeymoons over. X-I
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby Splendid61 » Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:03 pm

Lyle Overbay ends his 15-game homer drought as Greinke surrenders his first dinger of the year.
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby The Artful Dodger » Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:22 pm

Sweet, now I can get Greinke in all the leagues I don't have him in, for cheap.
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby mweir145 » Fri Jun 05, 2009 9:43 pm

Well he was obviously going to give up a HR at some point, but Zach really blew up tonight.
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby silverZ » Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:16 am

His location was off a little bit and the Jays took advantage. I noticed he only topped out at 94 mph. Glad I traded him for Longoria last week.
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Re: Greinke is NO Cliff Lee!!!!

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Jun 06, 2009 8:14 am

The Artful Dodger wrote:Sweet, now I can get Greinke in all the leagues I don't have him in, for cheap.

I'll send you him for Overbay.
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