As someone who is a big Cardinal's fan and watched Pujols play on many occasions, this man is not a great baserunner. I love his work ethic, he's a favorite player of mine, but he needs to stop trying to steal second.
He's 49/26 on his career, and this is mostly due to a 2005 when no one paid attention to him (16/2).
I think the 40 number is very realistic however. He did that for 4 straight years and has tailed off the last 2. This isn't to say he was declining, just the HR's slipped. 45/10 would be my bet on the year.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike