walkoffblast wrote: Matthias wrote:
walkoffblast wrote:I am confused why you think QS correlates with other stats but wins does not? Wins is clearly related to era and whip as well it is just not as high because it allows you to pitch worse and still get a win. That is the main reason it would be less correlated.
It's not that; it's the things that make Quality Starts a biased statistic (league, park, weather conditions) all affect the pitcher in question vis-a-vis everyone else pitching in the major leagues that day on his statistics but does not affect the pitcher in question vis-a-vis his opposing pitcher that day which is how he gets a Win. You could be playing in a beer-league field with 200 foot fences and have it be 98 degrees in Denver and you still have to outpitch the other guy on the mound.
First off your main argument is flawed for the same reason wins is: the offenses of the two teams are not equal, so run support will not be equal and since the complete game is a thing of the past you have to hope the bullpen does not blow it for you as well. Just because you outpitch the other guy you are far from guaranteed a win.
First, I know Wins are flawed. You know Wins are flawed. Anyone who has ever read a posting in a thread entitled anything like, "the official 'i hate wins as a category' thread" knows that Wins are flawed. The two primary flaws in Wins are the pitcher's own offense (predominantly) and the pitcher's own bullpen (also significant, but not as much). I've never said that Wins are perfect. Rather, I've just been trying to push the idea that Quality Starts are also not perfect and have their own inherent biases beyond the 6 IP, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA argument (which is more of a chimera than anything).
Second, if you ask me why QS correlates with other stats but Wins don't, I tell you the factors that affect both QS and other stats but don't go into Wins. A pitcher's own offense is not correlated to his ERA and WHIP. His own run support is not correlated to his ERA and WHIP. The strength of his own bullpen is not correlated to his WHIP and only marginally correlated to his ERA (if they let in some runners he had on base). Now, the defense behind him is correlated to those things, but that's not anything anyone really ever focuses on and probably only affects things really at the margins.
Now, can he be a crappy pitcher with a 1.75 WHIP, 5.85 ERA, and get the Win if he has Murderers' Row supporting him and the 2001 Yankees bullpen closing the door for him? Absolutely. You bet. And can he be Zack Greinke of last year where he posted a more-than-respectable 3.47 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.275 WHIP, finished 6th in QS, but only a mediocre 13 Wins? Absolutely. You bet. If I only wanted to look at one statistic to say, "who is the better pitcher" would it be Wins or Quality Starts? It would be Quality Starts. But if I wanted one category to add to ERA and WHIP and maybe a couple others for fantasy purposes, then I think it's a more complicated question. And, really all I'm trying to say, is Quality Starts is not a pure measure. It's a good one, sure, but it's not perfect, it's not clean, it's not everything that Wins isn't. That's all.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.