The Artful Dodger wrote:NikkiSixx wrote:The Artful Dodger wrote:
The reason why I'm down on Atkins as a whole is he's easier to replace with a Zimmerman/Beltre type later. He's not going to hit any more than 25 HR nor hit well over .300 (~.320) again and there's no Matt Holliday backing him up, FWIW. I'd rather gamble on Davis' upside of 30-35 homeruns than Atkins or for that matter, having to live with a bundle of games Chipper will miss in not playing.
Not having Holliday does suck, but are you willing to spend a 5th round pick on an unproven player in the majors? The upside can be very rewarding yes, but at the same time Jonny Gomes had a very similar 2005 only to fall flat on his face in 2006. Now, I am not comparing Davis and Gomes by any means...nor am I saying Davis will fall on his face this year, but with he has looked good for 1 half of a season and he JUST turned 23 years old. My point is, I wouldnt draft an unproven player like Davis over proven vets like Atkins and Jones until he has proved himself for a full season. That being said I do think Davis will be a consistent .280 hitter with 35-40 HR's a year one day.
Everyone's risk tolerance differs and most times, I wouldn't draft a player so highly based off only less than 300 AB. In the case of Davis, there's little to suggest in his minor league record that he can't hit for serious power. He also hit 17 HR in 295 AB; prorate that to nearly 600 AB and he's capable of just about 35 HR. His potential is like that of Ryan Howard's or Prince Fielder's and in fact, his frame as well as his power to all fields reminds me of Howard. That to me is definitely worth taking a chance on. The worst risk is spending too much on a "safe" pick when there's better replacement options at better values.
Point taken, and Ryan Howard is a good comparison actually. If Davis explodes as early as Howard did then its one hell of a steal (obviously).
"I wouldn't draft a player so highly based off only less than 300 AB."
Thats my whole point and I dont think he will hit above .270 this year either.