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Re: OBP vs. AVG

Postby walkoffblast » Sun Mar 29, 2009 12:13 am

Matthias wrote:
walkoffblast wrote:
Matthias wrote:We use AVG & OBP and I like it. It is almost like double-counting OBP, which is good from a true player value sense, without being completely duplicative. You have some guys that are high AVG, mediocre OBP and other guys that are bad or mediocre AVG but OBP rock stars. The true All Stars are generally high in both.

I am not sure how it is almost like double counting OBP because it is exactly like double counting AVG which is not particularly great from a true player value sense. I like using both but mostly because people are still reluctant to let go of BA. If you want a truer reflection dump AVG and use OBP. I am a big fan of incoporating OBP and SLG while diminishing the tyranny of BA.

AVG and OBP are correlated (for obvious reasons). SLG is overrated. Relatively speaking, OBP is 1.7x more valuable than SLG. So if you want to do away with AVG and double-count OBP, that's defensible. But AVG and OBP is probably better than OBP and SLG.

Just because something is correlated does not make it the same thing. I am not sure why SLG is overrated as its one of the better simple measures out there to get an idea of a players value. Yes, its overrated in such fantasy settings or especially in ops but remember in the typical league total stolen bases is worth more than 20 percent of a players value. Double counting obp would be one of the better fantasy options if we were trying to measure value perfectly but even more important would be getting rid of literally the entire standard 5 so at some point you have to weigh fun vs reality vs fantasy.

Check out this comment from tangotiger on your link.

Silly me. I didn’t even bother running a regression that included batting average. Here’s what we get:
r=.9999 (highest yet)

(1.8*OBP + SLG - 0.2*BA) * 0.28 * PA

That’s right. The batting average is a negative.

This was discussed in the second article here, as well as in the comments section (which I’ve given a direct link to):

In short, the batting average being a plus or minus depends on the run environment.
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