Tarquin wrote:I think the general consensus is that on a week-to-week basis in Head-To-Head, Pitching categories in general are less consistent than hitting categories, and SB's/AVG are less consistent than HR's, RBI, Runs.
Assume the average stolen bases in your league are 6 and the average homeruns in your league are 10 (Per week per team). Assume that in any given week, stolen bases can vary as much as 66% above or below your team average, while homeruns can vary as much as 33% above or below your team average.
So average team range: 2-10 stolen bases, 6.66 - 13.33 homeruns (the average team in the league will get between these values on a week-to-week basis)
If you dominate SB's (1.5 times the league average): SB range 3 - 15 stolen bases
If you dominate HR's (1.5 times the league average): HR range 10 - 20 Home Runs
There is much greater overlap between the average stolen base team and the dominating stolen base team compared to the homerun teams. What this means if that if you dominate stolen bases there is a greater chance you will lose that category anyways compared to if you dominate homeruns. Thus to guarantee winning stolen bases you have to get more than 1.5 times the league average (dominate by more).
Obviously this is simplified and it assumes that dominating homeruns is as easy or as hard as dominating SB's, but in general I want to show why trying to be around the league average in less consistent categories and dominating more consistent categories is a better strategy than the opposite in my opinion.
I agree with the position that I have tried to leverage what are in essence the least consistent categories, which is why I chose them. By that I don't mean that I wanted to choose inconsistent categories, but rther that everyone else neglects these categories because they are inconsistent, and focuses on the more consistent categories.
What I've tried to do to offset those inconsistent results is create the 1.5 (or 50% greater) gap between myself and most of the other teams. Since this was done in ESPN, I'll use their projections (even though we all know their projected stats leave something to be desired):
My team SBs - 278
Others SBs -
197 (41% better)
144 (93% better)
163 (71% better)
190 (46% better)
161 (73% better)
194 (43% better)
113 (146% better)
293 (6% worse)
124 (124% better)
So, there is really only one team that can compete with me. So, I'll have to beat him in pitching. Here are the pitching projections:
IP H ER BB K W SV ERA WHIPSt. Pete Punch n Bags 2079.9 1816 739 607 1884 148 141 3.20 1.23
In it to Win it 1362.7 1230 529 488 1218 95 126 3.49 1.29
Team Babin 1259.7 1202 512 416 1072 82 46 3.66 1.36
The Big Daddies 1264.5 1111 500 422 1196 92 75 3.56 1.27
44 Bulldawgs 1571.4 1477 661 518 1451 109 101 3.79 1.36
simi valley 1422.3 1298 544 425 1273 101 81 3.44 1.30
OC Stickballers 1452.9 1369 634 516 1344 98 110 3.93 1.38
Stoney Smurfs 1342.9 1219 567 531 1112 80 105 3.80 1.33Hollywood Underground 753.7 736 302 261 584 48 155 3.61 1.38
California Gold E 1610.7 1600 670 464 1303 107 104 3.74 1.41
So, as you can see, the only real challenge I'm going to have is from HOllywood Underground, who I must say incorporated the only strategy that can match me (in my opinion) - SB's and Saves, and he'll beat me in the other offensive categories.
Other than that team, I feel pretty confident I've got a significant advantage over all the other competition.