Matthias wrote:but you have to examine the P alongside the other things that a government could do with the same money before you declare that this program must happen.
How does this take into account the actions and motives of other actors (states)?
If you have your intelligence community do an analysis and they decide the probability of a rogue nuclear strike is 1-in-1,000 and if it happens, it will kill 1,000,000 people but it will cost you $15 trillion to develop something to stop that, you look if you can save 1,000 other lives for cheaper than $15 trillion.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.