Yoda wrote:San D wrote:I'll try. Werth obviously had a unusually good year last year in the power and speed departments. However, he has shown this ability in his younger years (2004 for power and 2005 for speed). He has spent a lot of time out with injuries, so one could make the argument that this could be his age 27 development year. He has managed to keep a good OBP and OK power versus righties the last couple of years so the manager said he won't sit more than 15 or so games this year. He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart). I could see an upside of 30-30 with the increased PT and no injuries.
Ok but staying health is a skill and he hasn't been very good at it. Chances are, his body will breakdown more as he gets older.
What are the chances of him riding the pine if he doesn't perform well?
Those are definitely his concerns. I tend to put a lot of stock in previous year stats when it comes to injuries which has obviously burned me in the past but helped me in others. I don't see much concern with his riding the pine and would put his downside as last year if he stays healthy. However, as you pointed out, health is his main concern. The injury past drops him 4-5 rounds after Corey Hart but the fact that his most current year (2008) was healthy makes many people bullish.