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Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 5:47 pm
by soylent green
I am in a yahoo league with daily lineup changes. 1450 pitching inning limits. I am considering using three or so of my bench spots to draft great set up men and making sure I get them into the lineup every day. These players can be drafted late and using these rotoworld projections of the average of the top 13 guys (three of them on my team) on my list would give you a projected stat line as follows: 180 innings pitched, 12 wins, 18 saves, 185 k's, era around 3.05 and a whip around 1.16. Do you think this is a good strategy or is it a waste of roster space. Thanks for the help

P.S. I feel like I did a poor job of explaining my projected stat line. I took the total of all stats for the top 13 guys and then divided by 13 for the average and then multiplied by three since I will only be drafting three of them. I question my plan because it makes a great deal of sense to me, but I have never seen it advocated in any mag or online so I am assuming I am missing something. thanks again.

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 6:18 pm
by GotowarMissAgnes
It's a very common strategy and can be used very effectively.

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 7:00 pm
by jcook3127
Yep...it works too...just make sure you have some bench starters too...If you employ this strategy, I would recommend having no more than 1 bench hitter....I personally like to roll with zero bench hitters but I play in H2H so a utility guy in roto does make some sense....but ya, don't underestimate the power of middle relief...

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 7:09 pm
by BalataGrande
I do it almost every year. Didn't do it last year in 2 leagues and finished as poorly as I EVER have. There were injuries and bad luck involved in one but I swear by the strategy. I usually try and get the 2 best SU guys who will more than likely NOT become closers. I use K/9 and WHIP as my guides. At the end of the year, if you take ANY 2 of the top 5 setup guys and add their stats together you will get stats very similar to the #8-12 starters stats for the year. Not bad for a couple of 18-24 round draft picks. It is effective in BOTH H2H and Roto but moreso in Roto.

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 7:26 pm
by kab21
It makes sense if you will be close to the innings limit. Otherwise it would be better to go out and get mediocre starters that will give you more wins and K's per roster spot.

One other note is that in the draft and early in the year I might take a stab at an upside starter to fill out your roster and as pitchers get injured or ineffective then grab the middle relievers to fill-in. The MR's will still be there later on.

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 7:29 pm
by soylent green
good to hear that it is a sound strategy, disappointed to hear it is that popular. Thanks

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 8:03 pm
by fezzik
The only difficulty with the strategy is making sure you get really productive MRs, which isn't as easy a task as you might think. It's easy to handpick stats from the prior years numbers, crunch them, and see that if you had some of the top MRs on your team that it would have helped you. It's another to accurately target exactly who the top MRs will be for the current year...but if you're able to do it, then it will surely help your team.

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 8:12 pm
by buffalobillsrul2002
One thing to keep in mind is that 1450 innings is a ton of innings to fill. You'll probably have three closers, so that might be worth somewhere in the 200 innings total range. That leaves 1250 for starters/MRs MRs are probably good for 60-70 apeice, assuming no injury. You'll need at least 7-8 starters to fill the rest of those innings (assuming you don't play your 5th, 6th, 7th starter every day). Another option you could take is you could choose to come in under that limit, and dominate ERA, WHIP instead, while focusing more on offense. I'm not really sure what to tell you to do here. It depends on # of roster spots and a lot on what you're opponents do. Knowing nothing about you're league's settings, I'd be inclined to tell you to not do it, and to at least start by trying some high-upside starters. Later on in the season, when you have an idea of where you're standing in certain categories and what your opponents are doing, you could try the MR thing.

Assuming 22 roster spots and a 12-team league (I think this is Yahoo default), and 9 starting hitters, this leaves you with 13 spots to use on bench/pitchers. In roto, you probably want to leave one spot for bench hitting to replace guys not playing on Mondays and Thursdays, and as some sort of depth in case of injury. This puts you at 12 pitchers.

From 12 pitchers you have three closers (if you want to come in the middle of the pack in saves). That puts you at 9 pitchers. Now if you carry 3 MRs, that puts you at 6 pitchers to fill about 1050 innings. I'm guessing that means using six starters to try and fill the 1050 innings. This is probably viable assuming no injuries, but if any pitchers get hurt you probably are going to want to do more spot starting and not have to use your rotation every single start out (otherwise, you'll end up killing your ERA/WHIP with bad starts anyways). Since you'll be "out" of roster spots, this will mean that you'll have to get rid of a reliever(probably 2) in order to reach that roster limit.

So I probably wouldn't use this strategy; at least not to start. it's much much more valuable in a league with a smaller innings pitched limit.... The other option you would have is to not bother trying to reach your IP limit, but by doing this you're going to hurt you Ws and Ks and cancel out any advantage you would get by using your MRs. It's a viable strategy, just not one I would go with if I were you....

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:18 pm
by Steve-o
fezzik wrote:The only difficulty with the strategy is making sure you get really productive MRs, which isn't as easy a task as you might think. It's easy to handpick stats from the prior years numbers, crunch them, and see that if you had some of the top MRs on your team that it would have helped you. It's another to accurately target exactly who the top MRs will be for the current year...but if you're able to do it, then it will surely help your team.


And that's the kicker. MR pitching is tough to predict year to year. I personally think you are better off drafting fringe starters and hoping for a breakout, then picking up the MR guys who are performing very well off the wire.

Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:19 pm
by Steve-o
I almost forgot. Search for GotowarMissAgnes' thread on holds to look who some of the top MR are expected to be.

Here it is.