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Niffoc4 wrote:I've been thinking about this for a couple weeks as I prepare for my keeper draft, and wanted some input. I am trying to figure out what profile current 1st round players had before they were valued as highly in fantasy baseball... so then in a league where I may not have a chance this year I'll swing for the fences and go after guys that I think fit the profile. Basically my contention is that most 1st round players have been valuable fantasy players EVERY year or almost every year in the majors. They also tend to reach the majors at a young age. I know these aren't ground-breaking, but I think this makes it pretty safe to rule out Alex Gordon's upside as being the next Alex Rodriguez...Also, it encourages me to take someone like Matt Wieters, because PECOTA is all over him, and if he hits that well this year, I'll never have a chance at him in a keeper league.
Current 1st round players
1. Hanley- reached the majors at 23, had a 1st round quality year that year
2. Jose Reyes- reached the majors at 19, had a couple of half seasons that were ok (for his age), became a valuable player 2005
3. David Wright- reached the majors at age 21 and had a good half year, had a 1st round quality year the next year
4. Albert Pujols- reached the majors at 23 (I think) and has been awesome ever since
I'm a little too lazy to keep going, but I think this fits with Howard (except for the young age), Sizemore and Braun.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And Howard was a case where the Phillies had him blocked by Thome and took forever to give him an opportunity.
hybrid wrote:GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And Howard was a case where the Phillies had him blocked by Thome and took forever to give him an opportunity.
Not true and is a common mistake. Howard was got started at an older age and was more a late bloomer than anything else. In 2004 he tore up AA, then got 100+ AB in AAA where he slowed down some but continued to hit for power. Then in 2005 he killed AAA, Thome I believe got hurt, he was promoted and the rest was history. He only played 374AB in AA and 331AB in AAA, not that much time in either.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I think you need to take a look at his earlier career in the minors. A full year at A-. A full year at A. A full year at A+. And then more than a full year at AA/AAA. In total, he had more 2000 PAs in the minors
Compare that to several other 1B who started at age 20/21 as Howard did:
Teixeira: under 500 minor leage PAs.
Chris Davis: about 1100
Cojack: about 1250
Adam Laroche and Billy Butler: about 1750
Now, Davis and Teixeira you can rightfully say hit better than Howard, though after park adjustments it's pretty darn close. But, none of the other three approached Howard's production and yet he spent half a season to 2 seasons more time in the minors than they did.
Howard was moved incredibly slow through the minors, never pushed in any way. Could have been the right move or not. But, there's no doubt he was moved a lot slower than other players who showed similar performance.
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