Ender wrote:For my money a breakout by Drew sees him worth about the same as what he earned last year. Just too much luck in his numbers. He is a player that I am avoiding because I can draft guys like Hardy or Peralta a number of rounds later and they have good chances to earn just as much.
First let me say you're one of the posters here whose baseball related posts I generally pay attention to, because they often offer some good insight. And I agree Hardy/Peralta can be had 2-3 rounds later, with solid SS production.
I was just wondering what peripherals of Drew made you see the luck in his numbers? His BABIP wasn't abnormally high (.326...perhaps a little high, which would imply a regression from a .291 AVG to something closer to .280...and that's assuming no improvement), he had 76 extra base hits (44 doubles, 11 triples, 21 HRs), and he really lit it up the second half of '08. His BB/K ratio I see as a bit of a concern, but he showed progressive improvement in that stat during the course of the season as well. The only thing I can think of is that much of his power was confined to a small sample size (September). Is there something I'm missing? Are there some stats/numbers I'm not looking at?