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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 15, 2009 4:29 pm

I'd be very careful about using their playtime projections. They heavily regress everything assuming most players won't play a full season and while that is probably accurate it isn't an assumption you probably want to make in fantasy baseball, especially in the later rounds of the draft.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:02 pm

Anybody else see this? Pretty pathetic...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdaGDr6yZtg
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:40 am

The way they use the "man in the straw hat" thing reminds me of "Joe the Plumber" for some reason.

It doesn't look like they have a full grasp of what sabermetrics is and exactly what statistics can tell you. Do they know that fangraphs and similar sites keep track of swing rates, pitch types, infield hit%, etc? Also it does my heart good to see Harold Reynolds disagree with me about Kevin Youkilis.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby reenum » Mon Mar 16, 2009 1:34 pm

I used BP last year, and was unimpressed. I had their fantasy package, which gave me access to PECOTA and not much else.

This year, I'm trying out Baseball HQ.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby jfg » Wed Sep 16, 2009 2:15 pm

I was looking over a couple excel files I had with PECOTA preseason projections... does anybody else agree that PECOTA was awful this year?
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:39 pm

Code: Select all
Matt Wieters
2009 Weighted Mean PECOTA Forecast
PA  R  2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS EqBRR  AVG/ OBP/ SLG MLVr  EqA VORP WARP
649 105 33  2 31 102 77 102  4  2  -1.0 .311/.395/.544 .281 .319 59.6  7.9
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby jfg » Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:17 am

A lot of people got the Wieters projection wrong, BP was just a little more excited. What BP has been great at in the past is finding players who might be on the way down and it seemed like they missed very frequently this year. I'll be interested to see if anybody does any comparisons this offseason to other popular projections to see how bad they were. Maybe it was just a weird year.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby Ender » Thu Sep 17, 2009 1:09 am

jfg wrote:A lot of people got the Wieters projection wrong, BP was just a little more excited. What BP has been great at in the past is finding players who might be on the way down and it seemed like they missed very frequently this year. I'll be interested to see if anybody does any comparisons this offseason to other popular projections to see how bad they were. Maybe it was just a weird year.


Generally speaking these comparisons are just terrible, as an example we have rotodaddy's comparisons which are so flawed they are useless. This is most certainly an area that needs a lot more work since most of these sites make you pay for their stats and there has yet to be a valid study deciding which ones are the best.

My general rule of thumb is if I'm going to pay someone for fantasy advice I want someone who is updating it on a regular basis. That means baseball HQ or fantistics in general. You buy Baseballprospectus for the general content and not just for the fantasy. It is a 'real baseball' site first and a fantasy one a distant second.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby jfg » Fri Sep 18, 2009 2:40 am

True, and I do not use them as my end all for fantasy, but PECOTA is very useful or at least has been if you use it right when drafting. You need to know how it works and how to use it. I've always relied on it for looking at players who have been in the league for a couple years ready to breakout and players who are on the decline, but that really failed me this year. Seeing how it's worked well for the past 5 years or so, I'm willing to give them another shot next year.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus

Postby Pochucker » Sun Sep 20, 2009 8:24 pm

All I know is BP led me to Werth , Weaver,J and Konerko as targeted late round picks -so Im more than happy.
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