I think it's a misconception to say one pitcher beat another. They pitch to the offense of the other team, not vs each other. Fogg pitched a decent game VS AZ. and Randy was unfortunate to have an unearned run scored against him.
Padilla has much more upside, IMO. He was thought to be a good pitching prospect before this season. Fogg has never been known as a good prospect. He's done well so far, no doubt, but his K's are dropping and he doesn't go deep into games. I think his good performance is mostly due to him being relatively unknown. We'll see how he does this week with his 2 starts vs CHC and HOU (I think that's who he's playing).
BTW: I would still hold Wickman, but he's reporting elbow pain, so it may be time to look at other options.