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Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:56 pm
by CubsFan7724
Gregg has been better in the spring, and, honestly, I like Marmol as your spot reliever lockdown guy that you can use whenever rather than have him stuck closing. Though closing would probably prevent him from being overused.

Honestly, we've heard nothing about who is going to win this battle in Chicago, from what I've read, just like the leadoff situation (once again, Theriot's +.400 OBP will be ignored because Soriano likes to bat leadoff, come hell or high water.) Apparently Lou is supposed to decide this week.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ba ... 9320.story

My intuition says that it will be Gregg's job. But it's nothing more than a hunch.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:59 pm
by Ender
My guess is Gregg wins the job. I am drafting Marmol though. If Gregg fails to take the job he loses all of his value, if Marmol fails to take the job he still has value. Gregg has been a bit abused in the past few years and is starting to break down physically so I don't like his odds of staying healthy as much. Pinella trusts Marmol and I think if Gregg struggles early he loses the job again, I think Marmol gets a longer leash.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:37 am
by SecretAgentMan
Ender wrote:My guess is Gregg wins the job. I am drafting Marmol though. If Gregg fails to take the job he loses all of his value, if Marmol fails to take the job he still has value. Gregg has been a bit abused in the past few years and is starting to break down physically so I don't like his odds of staying healthy as much. Pinella trusts Marmol and I think if Gregg struggles early he loses the job again, I think Marmol gets a longer leash.


In a std 5x5 league, they both are worth next to squat if they are not the closer. Middle Relivers are not worth a whole lot unless you are not playing 5x5 and your league counts some silly stat like Holds. Marmol would have more value since he could conceivably more easily step up into the closer's role, but if Gregg gets the job and then gets the job done, it isn't happening imo.

We heard similar type arguments about Todd Jones for the last 2 or 3 years of his career. Rodney is going to take over...Zumaya is going to take over...yeah well Jones may not have looked pretty doing the job, but he got the job done and he never really did lose that job until the very end when his contract was up. Not that Gregg is all that great, but he has done it before and done it adequately. So there is considerable risk to drafting either of these guys right now, esp. with Pinilla who is as about as clueless on pitching as any manager in MLB.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:53 am
by CubsFan7724
Not true. Marmol is an elite reliever who, even if he isn't closing, will post phenomenal WHIP and ERA, pitch a good amount of innings, and strike out a ton of batters. Plus he will vulture saves. Even if he isn't closing he should definitely be on a 5x5 roster with anything more than 10 teams.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 1:06 am
by SecretAgentMan
CubsFan7724 wrote:Not true. Marmol is an elite reliever who, even if he isn't closing, will post phenomenal WHIP and ERA, pitch a good amount of innings, and strike out a ton of batters. Plus he will vulture saves. Even if he isn't closing he should definitely be on a 5x5 roster with anything more than 10 teams.


Depending on your leagues IP limit and number of active slots, wasting IPs towards the IP limit with a MR instead of a closer or starter is not very productive as in the one case you are giving up saves and the other you are giving up Ws. kd9 does not score in 5x5. Yes it is true that a decent MR is better than a crummy starter, but that is not saying a whole lot as that means someone like Marmol would have the value of a fantasy #6 starter that is barely fantasy worthy to begin with in a mixed 10 or 12 team league. Yeah if you play with no ip limits in leagues with daily rosters then it makes MRs a little more palatable, but not by much. And in a weekly league, these guys have no value at all. I play in a number of weekly leagues and no MR not in a potential closer's role is rostered in any of them.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 1:37 am
by Ender
I play in a number of weekly leagues and no MR not in a potential closer's role is rostered in any of them


I only play weekly and elite MRs always find their way into lineups no matter what. Might just be that we play deeper rosters, dunno. An elite MR will outproduce a marginal SP with only 1 start the majority of the time.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:57 am
by Niffoc4
SecretAgentMan wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:Not true. Marmol is an elite reliever who, even if he isn't closing, will post phenomenal WHIP and ERA, pitch a good amount of innings, and strike out a ton of batters. Plus he will vulture saves. Even if he isn't closing he should definitely be on a 5x5 roster with anything more than 10 teams.


Depending on your leagues IP limit and number of active slots, wasting IPs towards the IP limit with a MR instead of a closer or starter is not very productive as in the one case you are giving up saves and the other you are giving up Ws. kd9 does not score in 5x5. Yes it is true that a decent MR is better than a crummy starter, but that is not saying a whole lot as that means someone like Marmol would have the value of a fantasy #6 starter that is barely fantasy worthy to begin with in a mixed 10 or 12 team league. Yeah if you play with no ip limits in leagues with daily rosters then it makes MRs a little more palatable, but not by much. And in a weekly league, these guys have no value at all. I play in a number of weekly leagues and no MR not in a potential closer's role is rostered in any of them.

I would think someone like Marmol would be MORE and not less valuable with an IP limit, because for each inning he pitches he gets more k's, and at least as many wins (Figure 6 wins or so for 70 innings... which is more wins per inning than a 200 inning starter winning 15). With 2 Marmols you get the stats of a real stud SP, and that's without Saves or Holds.
This strategy does make more sense in a daily league or one with more roster space though.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:39 am
by Maris09
Niffoc4 wrote:I would think someone like Marmol would be MORE and not less valuable with an IP limit, because for each inning he pitches he gets more k's, and at least as many wins.

That's exactly what I was thinking when I read that.

Basically if you only have 2 RP spots (as I guess SOME leagues do), then a non-closing reliever doesn't really work. But with any league that has the ability to use relievers either in more RP spots or P spots, someone like Marmol has tremendous value, regardless.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:25 pm
by hot4tx
Plus Marmol gets enough Wins per IP that he helps in that category if he doesn't get the closer's job. 5 Wins in '06 and '07 (I didn't take the time to breakout his Wins per inning as a non-closer in 2008) in an average of 73 IP, would give him the same W/IP rate as a 14 win starter (assuming 204 IP).

However, I don't know if I'm high enough on Marmol to take him in the 10th-12th rounds when some other top #2 SPs like Greinke are still around.

Re: Marmol/Gregg

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:31 pm
by kab21
There was another topic (or about 5) that everyone shared their thoughts on the elite MR and what their value was. And opinions were very different and I don't see why that has to be rehashed here.

But maybe we can rehash all of those comments saying there was no way that Gregg would be the closer.