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Marmol/Gregg

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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:55 am

NZ Eff wrote:
Yoda wrote:Gregg is simply not a good pitcher.


Another ridiculous statement.

His BAA over the past two seasons is .205. Even for a closer that is very, very good. HIs career K/9 is 8.1. The problem the past two years has been the high BB/9.


Since when is BAA the standard measure for pitching? Is that a New Zealand thing? :-D

OK, so maybe he is a decent pitcher but his K9 and BB9 are going the wrong direction and moving out of FLA will definitely hurt his numbers overall. 4.85 BB9 is not very good at all.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Feb 25, 2009 10:32 am

Maris09 wrote:
garf112 wrote:he may be more useful elsewhere, but what team actually employs the theory of having a "relief ace?" It is a great idea, but until I see it actually happen...

:-? Pretty sure it happened last year....and in Chicago. Wood was great, but the best reliever on the team was Marmol.


Was he?
Code: Select all
Wood:   66.1 IP 4.67 K/BB 0.41 HR/9 2.44 BB/9 .331 BABIP 11.40 K/9
Marmol: 87.1 IP 2.78 K/BB 1.03 HR/9 4.23 BB/9 .185 BABIP 11.75 K/B


He threw more innings, but he didn't mow batters down at a much higher rate, walked a ton more batters, gave up HR at a higher clip, and was severely aided by a .185 BABIP, which was a far cry from any BABIP he's ever had at any other level. There's a reason all the major projections are calling for a regression for him. If his BABIP goes back to the .270 level, where it probably ought to, his ERA and WHIP will be returning to a more reasonable level for how many batters he puts on.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby Maris09 » Wed Feb 25, 2009 12:44 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Was he?

I'd say he was.
Those numbers don't take into account that he was over used early.
For the first half of the year, Marmol was up there with the best relievers in all of baseball, let alone on his own team.

Part of the reason his numbers didn't stay at that crazy level was due to Pinella over using him. At least to my eyes, he was the more effective pitcher last year

It's hard to call one better than the other, they were both very very good. My main point was that it is possible for a team to use their most effective reliever earlier than the 9th.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Feb 25, 2009 1:54 pm

Maris09 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:Was he?

I'd say he was.
Those numbers don't take into account that he was over used early.
For the first half of the year, Marmol was up there with the best relievers in all of baseball, let alone on his own team.

Part of the reason his numbers didn't stay at that crazy level was due to Pinella over using him. At least to my eyes, he was the more effective pitcher last year

It's hard to call one better than the other, they were both very very good. My main point was that it is possible for a team to use their most effective reliever earlier than the 9th.

I dunno. August was his best month of the entire season, and he was good in September, too. He was downright dreadful in June and July, but his ERA was lucky in the latter month. He was walking everybody for that two month stretch, and his K's were down considerably. His innings were down then, but I imagine it was largely due to his ineffectiveness (I don't recall, off hand).

I dunno, I just think that there is a huge potential for Marmol to perform no where near where some believe he will this season, unless he suddenly stops walking so many batters. I have no idea if he'll pitch the 8th or 9th, but I do believe that Gregg was brought in to close, at least initially. His effectiveness of course will determine if he continues in the role.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby kab21 » Wed Feb 25, 2009 2:03 pm

Yoda wrote:
OK, so maybe he is a decent pitcher but his K9 and BB9 are going the wrong direction and moving out of FLA will definitely hurt his numbers overall. 4.85 BB9 is not very good at all.


Obviously Marmol is the better pitcher but I like how your argument against Gregg is based on walk rate. Marmol is in the 4.25-4.50 range. And I wouldn't exactly consider one year to be a trend. Gregg is solid but unspectacular.

he may be more useful elsewhere, but what team actually employs the theory of having a "relief ace?" It is a great idea, but until I see it actually happen...


If there was a place that I would expect to see it happen it would be with Lou Pinella.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby Eagle Baseball » Wed Feb 25, 2009 5:06 pm

I haven't talked to Lou lately or anything but I have to think if Marmol throws strikes he will be the closer.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 25, 2009 5:29 pm

kab21 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
OK, so maybe he is a decent pitcher but his K9 and BB9 are going the wrong direction and moving out of FLA will definitely hurt his numbers overall. 4.85 BB9 is not very good at all.


Obviously Marmol is the better pitcher but I like how your argument against Gregg is based on walk rate. Marmol is in the 4.25-4.50 range. And I wouldn't exactly consider one year to be a trend. Gregg is solid but unspectacular.


Marmol had a rough stretch and still was more dominant. Also 4 years younger than Gregg so if anything I'd expect Marmol to improve. As for Gregg, guys like him have a couple of good seasons and disappear so while he's been solid I would not expect him to improve.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby dragoon » Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:34 pm

I'll be staying away from both in the draft, let the other owners worry about it.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby DaShiz23 » Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:44 pm

dragoon wrote:I'll be staying away from both in the draft, let the other owners worry about it.

I would normally have this thought process as well, but Marmol's upside fantasy-wise as a closer is tremendous, and his draft slot is a lot lower than many of the guys he should end up better than.
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Re: Marmol/Gregg

Postby lbblue » Wed Feb 25, 2009 10:14 pm

NZ Eff wrote:Gregg will close to start the season but I see him struggling in Chicago in that role. Marmol will take over at some point but both Gregg and Marmol will be over valued come draft day. I would stay away from both in standard leagues unless you get them in the later rounds.


NZ Eff wrote:Really? Not saying the Cubs aren't foolish but the Cubs got Gregg to close. He will be the closer on opening day barring injury.


I'm very curious at to where you're getting your information. The Cubs got Gregg to close? Is that a fact? He'll start the season as the closer? You must have Jim Hendry/Lou Piniella on speed dial.

It is my feeling, and the predominant feeling among other Cubs' fans I know, that this closer "competition" is a sham. Marmol is going to be the guy. He has the best stuff of anyone in that bullpen and he's going to be the closer. My opinion, of course, but I do follow the Cubs closely and this is the conclusion I've come to from reading between the lines.

I believe Gregg was brought in for a variety of reasons and one of them, IMO, is as a backup plan for closer if Marmol fails or gets hurt. On a day to day basis, though, I see him sliding into Marmol's setup role or possibly Bob Howry/Jeff Samardzija's 7th inning role (supposedly Samardzija is being given an opportunity to compete for the 5th starter spot and may go down to the minors to work as a starter if he doesn't win the job).

I can understand why anyone would shy away from Marmol or Gregg in a fantasy draft, but I'll draft Marmol with confidence as my closer, just like I did last year with Kerry Wood. I think it will pay off at least as well, if not better.
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