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TheRock wrote:he could regress substantially and still be a great value given his ADP.
ScrappyDoo wrote:I watched most of his starts last year. And I think his numbers aren't as fluky as most believe. I think he is capable of putting up a great season this year, and he should be a bargain based on his ADP. His control is on par with anyone in the league. He doesn't walk batters very often, so he can afford to give up more hits. Also a lot of his hits tend to be bloops or singles up the middle, so a lot of the contact he gets is weak at best. If he can show the same control with his fastball as last year. He could put up really good numbers. He will probably not come close to 22 wins on a crappy CLE team, but his other numbers shouldn't drop too bad.
Even if he put up a line of 18 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 150 K's, which is a lot worse across the board from last year, he would still be a top 10 pitcher this year.
The other reason why I don't think he was a fluke was that he dominated all year long.
ERA by Month
hot4tx wrote:TheRock wrote:he could regress substantially and still be a great value given his ADP.
He's now sitting at an MDP of 72 and a Yahoo ADP of 78, making him an end of the 6th to mid 7th pick and putting him in the Lackey/Liriano/Kazmir/Beckett/Oswalt cost range. Early on he may have been lower, but as we get closer to the start of the season and more people have done their research it seems more people are believers.
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