RotoCowboy wrote:But putting him at 18 isn't expecting a repeat. If people were thinking repeat, he'd be in the discussion for #1. No one is thinking that. Does he have a better chance of getting those numbers than Greinke or Lester...of course, but none of them have a high likelihood of matching Lee's 2008 numbers. It isn't very deep thinking to assume 2008 was a total fluke, and then look up a solid year from his past and assume that is now what to expect (conveniently minus the wins).
It seems like a decent amount of people here are ignoring last year a little too much. And it's not like Greinke and Lester are locks to be under 4.00 - I've seen quite a few projections around or over 4.00 for each of them. I could understand Gallardo or someone with real upside like that. I just don't understand going after fairly risky minimal upside guys.
FWIW, Greinke's upside is just as high if not higher than Gallardo's. You can also argue that Lester's upside is very high as well.
I understand what you are saying though. Lee does seem like he is getting lumped into the Esteban Loaiza category which is completely unfair.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin