nolanwood wrote:wildbill wrote:You're right about Hawkins history in the closer role, but I'd still take him over any RP in Washington. At least you know Hawkins has the ability to be decent, he just needs to stay focused when he's pitching in the 9th.
Your opinion on the closer situation in Washington is well documented in this thread...you think they should be avoided.
I think the scenario in Washington is ideal for fantasy managers to monitor. A sub-par team can be a nice place to look for saves because their wins are generally close in nature. This is the perfect opportunity for someone like Beimel (an easy free agent pickup) to snag you a nice amount of saves with a respectable era. Yes, his lower K rate, whip and .baa could all point to trouble in that role; however, I'd still take that gamble any day of the week (interesting to note that aside from the K rate, Latroy's career #'s for .baa, era, and whip are higher than Beimel).
We already know Latroy makes a turdy closer...78 career saves, 47 blown saves. He's blown nearly 40% of his saves. That sounds like a bigger gamble to me, especially for a guy who is only a fill-in.
First, you don't need to be putting words in my mouth to argue against me. Please quote me where I said to avoid the washington situation completely. I've stated over and over it should be the last place to look, but I never said to avoid it completely.
You're failing to consider a number of things. You need to take a closer look at the numbers. Hawkins has only 3 seasons where he had 10 or more combined SV and BS. So you can throw out all those other seasons because odds are most of the BS were in a setup role. You do know a setup man can be charged with a BS don't you? Doing that it's only fair to throw out the saves in those years too because odds are they came in situations where the closer wasn't available for a night here or there. So in those other 3 years where it would seem he likely closed for a significant stretch of time he had 67 SV and 18 BS for a 79% conversion rate. Not elite, but not too bad. Better then anything out of Washington so far. Now in this situation you know he;s only closer as long as Valverde is out, but that's supposed to be at least 3 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats are still playing your turn to blow a save in 3 weeks.
Now as for Beimel, you have no idea what he'll do, but it probably won't be that good. Going back to what Karabell said, he's never been considered a late inning closer type before. Odds are, again based on what Karabell said, he has likely been used in matchup situations in which he's likely to succeed. Do you think he's going to have the same success in a closer situation where he's got to face whoever is coming up whether its an ideal matchup or not? Maybe he could succeed but it seems like a prime situation for fantastic failure. Hey if you're desperate go ahead take the risk, I'm not saying you shouldn't, but if you're not desperate for saves is it worth the high risk to your other stats? As I've said if you're desperate then you probably have no choice but to go for it.