I've seen discussion/argument/projection of how Holliday will hit in Oakland. Stadium factors, performance of other players, etc, etc have been discussed but one thing I haven't seen is discussion of how he does at average MLB parks away from Coors.

If you take his last 5 years in 2656 at bats his average year (based on 600 at bats) would be 108 runs, 29 HRs, 109 RBI and a .319 average. That seems a little low since the last three years he has increased his production from the first two. If you add 5% to those you get (again based on 600 at bats) 114 runs, 30 HR, 115 RBI and a .335 average. That seems reasonable. You could argue its been more like a 6% or 7% increase from the total average but its in the right range.

If you take his averages (based on 600 at bats) for just the 1303 at bats away from Coors (that's almost two and a half years of at bats so sample size should be reasonable here) and add that 5% you get 94 runs, 21 HRs, 85 runs and a .294 batting average. While I think those seem like low numbers to project for him, that very well could be showing us what a true Holliday without Coors field would give you. Keep in mind that this isn't even trying to include ballpark factors for Oakland (which is considered on the pitchers park side of nuetral) Include the facts that over the past 5 years (in roughly similar at bats) he's stolen 4, 14, 10, 11 and 28 bases and he's going to a team that's considered conservative for SB attempts and I don't see projecting him to get close to repeating his 28 SBs.

So add it all up and mid-90s in runs, low 20s in HRs, upper 80s in RBIs, under 20 SBs and right at a .300 batting average and you've got a 6th to 8th round player being drafted before the middle of the 2nd round.

Now before you slam me, there are definitely other reason why his road rates have been so much lower than just ballpark conditions (home sick, parties on the road, gets stiff while traveling, etc), it doesn't include the fact that he'll get to hit against pitchers not familiar with him, and it doesn't consider the fact that he will bat against Texas pitchers a bunch (and for the sake of one of my keeper league teams I hope his numbers don't fall anywhere close to that). However, I think this does demonstrate the huge amount of risk that Holliday represents compared with where he is being drafted.