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Analyzing the three Rivals (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays)

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Analyzing the three Rivals (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays)

Postby sbabaganush » Mon Jan 19, 2009 6:48 pm

Prediction for how competitve the Al East will be ignored the orioles and jays since they are out of it.
Will rate from 1 to 3, point based, best player for position gets a 1, worst player gets a 3.
Lowest point total indicates best team as of now.

SP1) 1.) Yankees and Sabathia (coming into prime, one of the best pitchers right now, excellent stamina and k/bb.
2.) Red Sox and Beckett (proven winner, solid ace when healthy enough, solid control and k's.
3.) Rays and Kazmir (extreme potential but injuries and yet to fully develop into a pitcher as opposed to a thrower, walks more than beckett and sabathia, k's highest

SP2) 1.) Rays and Shields (excellent control solid strikeout pitcher, in his prime, shown signs of durability in back to back 185+ ip, goes fairly deep into the game.
2.) Red Sox and Lester (very solid rookie year with plenty of potential, lefty power, good control for his age, have to be a tad weary over durability considering jumping from cancer recovery to 200 ip.
3.) Yankees and Burnett (best k pitcher here, worst control here as well but not bad control, health keeps him from being higher, oldest pitcher, dominant if consistently healthy.

SP3) 1.) Yankees and Wang (coming off injury but not to arm, pitches deep, wins plenty of games, dominant sinker, minimal base runners, good fielding, groundballs help negate low k total.
2.) Red Sox and Matsuzaka (control issues leads to lots of walks inability to pitch past 6th ining, good k totals, nice movement on pitches, really low avg.
3.) Rays and Garza ( low k total last year, definite potential, decent walk total for his age and experience, solid stuff, should be good, but may be slightly overrated to start the year

SP4) 1.) Yankees and Pettitte (Not easy to make, but he has an incentive deal, should be healthy, consistent 200 ip 14+ win pitcher who doesn't need to throw hard.)
2.) Rays and Sonnanstine ( not yet a believer in him, but mid twenties, had a solid year, some potential to have an era under 4.0 gives him the edge over wakefield.
3.) Red Sox and wakefield ( average pitcher meaning .500 record, great at times terrible at times, unpredictable usually averages out to league average or higher era.

SP5) 1.) Joba Chamberlain by a landslide, maybe a little hughes in the end.
2.) Rays and phenom Price or niemann/talbot ( lots of potential here too but price does not have the experience of hughes, has yet to actually start in games, mature enough to make jump quickly.
3.) Red Sox and Penny/smoltz/bucholz (Penny mean stuff if healthy however numbers for l.a. even when healthy don't look like the kind that translate well to al east, smoltz probubly best served as 8th ining guy, arm surgery 40 and it will undoubtedly take longer to come back as a starter, bucholz someday may be a middle of the rotation starter but has some more seasoning to go.

Note: SP4 was the easiest call to make, SP5 was the hardest to make, health could be biggest key as there are plenty of talented arms.

C) 1.) Yankees and Posada/molina (posada has most potential when healthy as only guy who hits for power and avg. plus molina offers very good defense as a backup.
2.) Rays and Navarro ( decent defensivly solid batting avg. low power not too much upside.
3.) Red Sox and Bard/whoever (no legit starter yet, defense shaky, offense maybe worse. could change if they make a move although not if they resign varitek.

1b) 1.) Yankees and Mark i don't want to spell his last name (great defense, consistent 30+ hmrs .290 avg hitter middle of lineup.
2.) Rays and Pena (huge power upside, 30+ hmrs, shaky batting avg ovsetts it with power and rbis, solid defense, aybar backing him up.
3.) Red Sox and Youkilis (solid all around player, very good defensively, overrated as hitter this year more of a .290 20 hmr guy, power harder to come by plus no viable backup gives rays the edge.

2b) 1.) Red Sox and Pedroia (excellent player, plays hard, good defense, bit small for majors, but 200 hit second basemen is nice.
2.) Yankees and Robbie cano ( talented hitter and fielder no 2 second basemen until he puts it together not as tough as pedroia.
3.) Rays and iwamura (lacking potential and talent average player.

ss) 1.) Yankees and Jeter ( only weak position in al east, weak most places, means jeter still king, consistent captain.
2.) Rays and bartlett/zobrist brignac in the wings ( potential and better defense gives edge.
3.) Red Sox and lugo/lowrie (lugo fallen off face of earth, lowrie nice bench guy not a viable starter not much potential.

3b) 1.) Yankees and arod ( one of the best, not much to say
2.) Rays and Longoria ( very talented tough player, numbers slightly lower than arod could overtake in a couple of years.
3.) Red Sox and Lowell ( coming off injury oldest player here, not as much of a factor offensivly decent defense.

LF) 1.) Rays and Carl crawford (should get back on track as a stud.
2.) Red Sox and Bay (.280 30 hmrs in prime years.
3.) Yankees and damon ( aging nicely, good range in left.

CF) 1.) Rays and Upton ( all around player with plenty of upside should be coming into his own
2.) Red Sox and Ellsbury ( speed demon with low power levels but decent potential and solid fielding
3.) Yankees and gardner/cabrera/swisher (bit of a weak spot until someone emerges some potential but not enough to challenge other teams.

RF) 1.) Red Sox and drew ( injury plus not very tough makes him unattractive but no one better
2.) Yankees and nady/swisher (decent power but not the batting avg. of drew.
3.) Rays and Joyce ( nice power unproven.

Bench 1.) red sox thanks to guys like baldelli
2.) rays relatively deep team with potential in minors
3.) Yankees trouble if guys like jeter and posada go down.

DH 1.) red sox and ortiz still a monster both in looks and hitting
2.) rays and burrell due to power and rbi advantage
3.) yankees and matsui injury questions

Bullpen : Only change would be dropping the rays, because their bullpen shouldn't be anywhere near as effective as last year, last year was best case scenario for them by far. Red sox and yankees are a wash can't extend one over the other. Both great closers and a lot of talented arms. Boston if they are smart could wind up with a 1 2 knock out punch of papelbon and either saito or smoltz and considering the joba situation the yanks will have joba setting up for rivera offering a similar 1 2 punch.

Tally: Yankees (27 points) Red Sox (32 points) Rays (30 points)
Last edited by sbabaganush on Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Analyzing the three Rivals (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays)

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jan 20, 2009 10:36 pm

Not the best way to evaluate teams and I think you probably overrated NY a little in places, but interesting. There will be a lot of speculation on who will win the division this year, but I think the bottom line is that the East is going to come down to who is healthiest. All three teams have the talent and potential to win 100 games and the World Series. It's going to come down to who stays healthy. Can the Yankees can get production from Burnett/Posada/Matsui, Boston from Ortiz/Beckett/Lowell, etc.
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Re: Analyzing the three Rivals (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays)

Postby noseeum » Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:41 pm

Have to update this and put Pettitte at 4 and Joba at 5. I would probably put Sonnanstine above Pettitte. He's got talent, he had some bad luck last year. He's should be right around a 4 ERA and maybe better if he can put it together.

Joba clearly by far the best #5.
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Re: Analyzing the three Rivals (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays)

Postby stevethumb » Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:50 pm

redsox best
yanks 2nd
rays last

i am sure there will be arguments over each slot, but IMO the redsox #5 combo of penny-buchholz-smoltz will be the most effective of the 3 teams #5 situations
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Re: Analyzing the three Rivals (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays)

Postby sbabaganush » Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:34 pm

No, Chamberlain is # 5, no argument there and there is no reasoning to put either the yanks or the sox bullpen ahead of the other to many factors involved. Example yes papelbon is younger than rivera and a better bet in the present, but joba can slot in and be just as effective as papelbon. Saito and smoltz can be great but there both over 39 coming off injuries. Both teams have a lot of young arm talent. It might matter more how healthy and effective each rotation is as too how sucessful the bullpens are than what actual talent is in the bullpen, for all of that it has to be a wash.

Keys to success: Red Sox; Emergence of a solid back of the rotation

Trade for a high potential catcher who proceeds to produce for them

The health of Big Papi and Beckett

Rays; A Healthy Crawford, Kazmir

Continued emergence of Price and Longoria

Continued excellence on defense

Yanks; Health of Posada(possibly most important x-factor in league), jeter, Pettitte

Return to above average rotation

Cano getting on the right track or being traded for something towards the right track.
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