The Cow wrote:
TheGhost76777 wrote:I'm kinda "meh" on this deal, but there are some positives.
Pavano has not been league average the last 4 years, including the one he missed to injury. ERA's of 4.77, 4.76 and 5.77 do not scream league average they scream BUM. 1.5 mil and cross your fingers. Its amazing how teams just flush away 1.5 mil, I say give it to me. I will fold the socks which will be more useful than Pavano will be with the Tribe.
Pavano could have rode off into the sunset with the Yankees money. He trained very hard to come back last year and pitch in front of fans who were very hostile.
After Pavano's exam, Shapiro mentioned Pavano's conditioning as outstanding. Obviously, Pavano is hungry to prove himself, why go through this trouble last year and this year for 1.5 mil when you've already made 50+. Is it possible that our medical staff and scouts have some ability to evaluate his desire and fitness to pitch?
Pavano was the player the Expos got from the Red Sox for Pedro Martinez. He was a stud prospect, along the lines of Jaret Wright at that time.
Pavano was the #1 pitching target in free agency when the Yankees signed him. He was coming off a tremendous year with the Marlins. Let's not totally discount those numbers, even though they were a long time ago. Pavano would not be the first player to flame out in NYC, and bounce back in new surroundings. The Indians were interested in signing him, but were outbid. I can understand discounting "one good year", but not for a commitment of 1.5 mil.
Pavano looked very good at times last season. He was coming back just 12-13 months after TJ surgery. His velocity began to return, as he was able to hit 90 occasionally on the gun. It is not unreasonable to think that he will be stronger this season, with increased velocity on his fastball. He showed very nice movement on his breaking pitches, (primarily curve and splitter), with good speed differential vs. his fastball. There's plenty of film on Pavano last year at MLB.com-watch it like scouts do and see for yourself before you say he's done.
Pavano's contract is quite low on the guaranteed side at 1.5 mil, but escalates sharply past 18 starts to a relatively high number-(did I see 7 mil or so?) He has no team option or second year built-in. This is the type of contract a pitcher would take if he felt quite confident in his health, and in his ability to come back and contribute.
Compared to the Brad Penny deal, this is much less of a risk to the Indians, with very little guaranteed money.
After another year with no losses in the Rule 5 draft, can we give Shapiro a little credit on managing the forty man roster? Aubrey had his cup of coffee last year and didn't show much, I'm disappointed he didn't work out cause I liked him out of college, but no big loss now. Garko, Martinez, and DeRosa can all play first, and Brown, Head, Hodges, Mills, and LaPorta all look like first baseman as well. Jackson will get a look in the spring, if he looks good, let him be the fifth starter to open the season, since he is out of options. Sowers, Lewis, Huff, and Laffey can form the rotation in Columbus, assuming Reyes and Pavano are good to go.
If Sheets gets 2 years for 30, Perez gets 3 for 30, Lowe gets 3 for 40, Wolf gets 3 for 22, Redding gets two for 12, why is Pavano for 1.5 a bad deal???? His 2009 numbers could theoretically match those of any of these pitchers.
Congrats to Shapiro on a great job of maximizing his monetary resources, as well as developing financial and positional flexibility. No long deals, no trading of any significant prospects- he moved quickly and decisively to address our weak spots.
With good health, we win the Central, and everybody comes back in 2010.