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### Re: Defensive Metrics thread continued

Big Pimpin wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:This basically sums up what I've tried to express in this thread pretty well, and probably more succinctly than I have.

Again, the problem with this is that it starts with the assumption hitting and fielding come from the same distribution of outcomes. They don't. Hitting is a draw from a low mean, high variance distribution. Fielding is a draw from a high mean, low variance distribution. A random draw from the first is likely to be characterized by lots of variability. A random draw from the second is not.

Again, they're quite comparable when measured in runs.

Again, they're not. Runs are simply a linear transformation from the underlying rate data.
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### Re: Defensive Metrics thread continued

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Again, the problem with this is that it starts with the assumption hitting and fielding come from the same distribution of outcomes. They don't. Hitting is a draw from a low mean, high variance distribution. Fielding is a draw from a high mean, low variance distribution. A random draw from the first is likely to be characterized by lots of variability. A random draw from the second is not.

Again, they're quite comparable when measured in runs.

Again, they're not. Runs are simply a linear transformation from the underlying rate data.

Ok, a linear transformation from the underlying plays number, which is derived from an entire matrix of probabilities, some of which are high and some of which are low.

I love this stuff.
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