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I disagree. The method to the calculation for playing time is arbitrary. Take Liriano. We know why he missed time the last two years. Is 92 innings a reasonable projection for this year? I don't think so, based on what we know of Tommy John surgery. Other projection systems take into account the injury proneness of players as well, but they also look at the individual circumstances.
Marcel's method falls flat for players that have significant injuries that keep them out for a long time.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:My response would be: show me the data. I'm open to the idea that Marcel predicts younger or injured players worse, but let's see some evidence for that before making the claim.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Well, the question is whether just assuming average performance leads to better predictions than trying to project MLB performance based on minor league performance.
I don't think we have any disagreement at all that Marcel is a baseline or that most projection systems do only marginally better than it.
And, I would certainly not be surprised if some of that marginal difference was young/injured players. But, you don't convince me with statements from any interview. You convince me with data that shows the evidence.
Tango would I'm sure say the same thing. But he would add, "Yes, but the funny thing is, I'm not much worse than any other projection system out there and I'm better than most."
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Tango would I'm sure say the same thing. But he would add, "Yes, but the funny thing is, I'm not much worse than any other projection system out there and I'm better than most."
And that's the key point. Despite the fact that it ignores a lot of relevant factors, it STILL does better than many.
So, even when looking at injured/young players, there's little good reason to prefer other systems over Marcel. Why should you trust them when they use averages? Well, what happens with injured/young players? The ones that do poorly or get re-injured get sent down; the ones that do well, get extra playing time. And, the result is that the average prediction is not far off, just as for other players.
Again, the test is in the data, not some hypothetical discussion. All projection systems have some arbitrary elements, and the test is whether the sysem works, not the process of getting to the projection. Marcel will be right on some, wrong on others, just as they were with Liriano. I would resist throwing a system out the window until you have proof that it is no good. I often keep Marcel in to temper the supposed wisdom of the projection systems like James that often seem to over-project young guys and returning injured guys. as tango says, "..better than most".
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