GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I don't disagree, bigwords, but that's part of the issue. Some of these systems project these guys to get major PT, while others do not. I'm interested in why people think one is right, while the other is wrong. PT is not just, will they win a starting spot, but will they be good enough and healthy enough to hold onto it.
Some of these systems aren't making guesses of next year's playing time as much as only looking at the previous seasons. IIRC Marcel simply uses a 5, 4, 3 weighting (3 previous seasons) for it's projections (including G's and AB/IP's). So any player that has missed considerable time due to injury/suspension or a young player that saw alot of bench time can be way off. For example Liriano is projected to pitch 91 IP by Marcel. I like looking at the projections, but they are limited. One thing that they still are good for is looking at rate stats (avg or ERA or HR/AB type stuff).