Curtis Pride wrote:To assume 18+ wins is pretty aggressive. I do realize he's done it twice in his two full years, but it's aggressive nonetheless.
His entire value is in wins and ERA. He's always going to give up a ton of hits since he's a massive groundball hitter and the Yankees middle infield defense is atrocious, so his WHIP will be high. He doesn't strike out many people so that hurts.
Wins and ERA are both open to a lot of variability. Some bad luck with run support and he goes 14-11. A couple squibbers "past a diving Jeter" and his ERA creeps into the low 4s instead of mid 3s. So even though I have him projected at 17-8 with a sub 4 ERA, it still also comes with a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and barely 100ks. That makes him a reach any higher than about 30. If you give him 20 wins and a mid 3 ERA, it still only makes him about a top 20-25 SP by my calculations. His WHIP and low Ks will just keep him from being a very valuable pitcher.
I do admit, I can agree with almost all of it. But still, I'm somewhat on the fence.
First, with Ks, I do expect them to increase. He has done it each season, from 3.1, to 4.7, to 5.1. In 06 and 07, he had almost identical stats except for the Ks. An increase by 28 Ks bumped him 4 spots from the 34th best SP in baseball to the 30th (even with less IP and a slightly higher ERA). If his Ks increase again from last year, which I expect if he keeps his altering his pitch selection as he has, I see him becoming exactly what you said - in the 20-25 range.
With defense, it depends which Jeter/Cano duo shows up this year. We can all agree that Jeter is an average defender at best, but last year was actually one of his best defensive years (-.4 UZR). With Cano, just a couple of years ago he was one of the better fielding 2Bs, above an 8.0 UZR. And even last year, Cano had a decent UZR pre-allstar, but had a couple months of horrible defensive play. But even so, in 07, Wang still had great numbers even with Jeter's league worst UZR (-20!).
I think he's obviously not a sexy pick, and really doesn't have immense upside. But I really do think that he's one of the more dependable and predictable pitchers around that ADP.