noseeum wrote: AussieDodger wrote:
I love Dunn, but I can see what you are saying BP. Nice work
Also, Bradley can adequately play CF, a reasonably thin position, so that makes him even more valuable.
Dunn should be a permanent DH.
Big Pimpin, I'm going to have to disagree on this one. The fact that you can use statistics to show Bradley + 60 games of replacement level player > Dunn shows there is something wrong with those statistics, not that Dunn is so terrible in the outfield that Bradley + RP is better.
Defensive statistics still have a long way to go to catch up with offensive statistics. If I thought I could get 130 games out of Bradley, I'd probably want him over Dunn, but at only 100, there is no way he's better for a host of reasons.
Here's another example comparing Manny and Crawford. Using many of the popular saber defensive stats, it looks like Crawford is just as valuable as Manny. I don't think anyone believes that.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... e-defense/
I'll add that I'm not saying I'm positive that Dunn at 150 games is better than Bradley at 100, but I would need a lot more proof than we have right now to believe he's not.
I just have a couple of things to say in response...
I would argue that the illustration I made above does not show something wrong with the stats, just that everyone and their brother seems to overestimate how good Dunn is. He just isn't that great. He rated below average
last year (I'm not going to argue that he is in fact below average because I can't put that much weight in just one year of defensive metrics, but I digress...). Taking part of a season from someone who is significantly above average and part of a season from a guy who is below average will come out somewhere around average. I don't see it being a tough argument.
As to the defensive stats, I'm going to reiterate an argument I made in the Teixeira thread. I agree that there is progress yet to be made, but disagree that the metrics can't be used. If I was doing a thorough analysis, I would look at all of the good ones (UZR, PMR, Chone, etc.) over the past several years and come up with a range I was comfortable with (for the record Chone also has Bradley about 20 runs better than Dunn in a corner, but I didn't want to do the PMR calcs). I specifically said above that I didn't want to do a range here because that would have just added to the complexity of the calculation and I didn't want to go there.
Simply put, if the scouts agree that Dunn sucks, and the metrics back up that he is among the very worst defensive OFs (along with Burrell, Ibanez, Manny, Hawpe, Griffey, and Abreu), and Bradley is rated as a plus fielder and the metrics back that up, there's really no argument. To say that the numbers don't mean anything is ridiculous.
Furthermore, you want to make the argument that offensive stats are far ahead of defensive stats. I call BS on that too, because only in the last couple years has a stat come out that actually means anything when it comes to run correlation, and that's wOBA. You can what you will about OPS or OPS+ or anything else, but the fact is that couldn't turn those numbers into runs, which at the end of the day is the only thing that really matters.
As for your Manny vs. Crawford argument/link, I see no reason not
to believe that they are close in value. Manny is a lazy butcher in the field. No doubt he's an offensive force when he's motivated, but if you just blow off defense and say "Manny can't be that bad out there" then you're making a $20M mistake. Unless you get second half 2008 Manny, then he can basically pull up a lawn chair and he'll be an asset to the team, but that seems like a silly guess as to how he'll perform in the future.
Anyway, defense is by far the most undervalued "asset" in baseball and certainly one that's overlooked by many (especially fantasy players that don't care about a player's defensive contributions or lack thereof). Look at Tampa, I'm pretty sure that them going from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2007 to the best in 2008 was a pretty big reason why they went from last to the World Series. Some people get it, and some do not. It may not be perfect yet (probably never will be) but to just throw up your hands and say that there's too much noise and the numbers don't mean anything is silly IMO.