ThatDude wrote: Big Pimpin wrote:
ThatDude wrote:There's no way in hell that can be true.
Sure it can... Who do you think would replace him for those 60 games and I'll run the numbers.
It wouldn't be just one person. Fukudome, Hoffpauir, and Miles would all probably see some time there.
And exactly what numbers are you talking about running?
Well, you've got to look at wOBA for all the players and plate appearances to figure out their offensive contribution and then look at their defensive contributions as well.
I'll just simplify it then.
If I average the James/Marcel projections for wOBA, Bradley and Dunn come out equal (meaning I don't even have to run the numbers). CHONE actually says Bradley will be worth about 10 runs more than Dunn over the course of 150 games. So let's call offense a wash.
Defensively, let's look at the last 4 years of data. If I average them, Dunn is approximately a -16 run defensive corner OF. He's really bad. Bradley on the other hand, if I average the last 4 years together and adjust his time in center to a corner, is a +9 defensive corner OF.
So, combined we'll say over the course of a season that Bradley is worth 25 runs more than Dunn. If we say Bradley is only going to play in 100 games, that's 62.5% of the season, so Bradley is 15 runs ahead of Dunn. Now, we'll have to find a LF that Dunn can make up 15 runs on in 37.5% of the season, so he'll have to be really bad considering Dunn isn't that good. Since the offensive projections for Dunn are pretty close to last year's numbers, I'll use those in conjuction with the -16 defensive value from above, so he's about an overall +12 LF. So to make up those 15 runs, I'll have to find a -13 LF to replace Bradley with. You've got to try really hard to find someone that bad, because they don't hang around. Maybe someone who literally can't play at all anymore, like Griffey. Or Francoeur circa last year.
Honestly, Dunn is probably worse than Fukudome, or at best a very, very slight improvement.