I'm just going to hit the highlights here, cause I really need to get some sleep.
wake wrote:I'm going to assume you're talking about trying to get the real doctor to come forward.
No. I was talking about what happens if we lynch Yoda now.
I'm certainly not advocating the real doctor revealing himself right now (if Yoda is lying). I can't think of any circumstances where the town benefits from the doctor revealing himself on day 1. Maybe in a situation where we have to lynch correctly or lose, but not on day 1. Which puts a big mafia flag on him.
wake wrote:First off, all your outcomes are based on the idea that a townie will definately be killed because the odds are against him. While that's true, the odds are always against the townies. By the time they have even odds with the mafia, they've lost the game. Therefore, you can't just assume that a townie will be killed in a given situation.
I'm not assuming it. I'm saying it's the most likely outcome, simply because there are more townies than non-townies.
It's possible the mafias will slip up and make themselves obvious, and we'll get them. Such as Yoda has done. But it's not something that can be really counted on.
wake wrote:Yoda is confirmed as the real doctor when no one else steps forward.
This simply isn't true, and you know it.
Yoda's claims aren't guaranteed to be true just because nobody claims otherwise. They are simply not proven false, at least not until either he dies (if he's telling the truth) or the real doctor dies (if he's lying).
Your plan seems to have two main goals.
1 - Reveal and confirm the identity of either the investigator or the doctor.
2 - Get the townies to burn a full day, by trying to prevent lynching someone who is clearly not good for the town and wanting the investigator to waste a night checking out that same someone, who is already clearly not good for the town.
At this point, I'd have to recommend the investigator check you out tonight. You and Yoda are showing similarities in your desire for bad things to happen to the townsfolk.