Round 3 (POTUS Debate)

[Art Vandelay]

This is going way too far, I'd say:

Irish bookmaker pays out early on Obama victory

DUBLIN (Reuters) – Ireland's biggest bookmaker Paddy Power said Thursday it would pay out early more than 1 million euros (782,776 pounds) on bets that Barack Obama will be the next U.S. president, three weeks ahead of the election.

The Dublin-based bookmaker said it made the "unprecedented decision" to pay on bets taken so far, following Wednesday's final campaign debate between Obama and his Republican rival John McCain, which polls judged the Democrat to have won.

"We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama," Power said.

Link to full story

I wouldn't count McCain out of this yet, not by a long shot. There's 3+ weeks of tomfoolery left. Obama hasn't wrapped anything up at all.

That is odd. I think McCain is toast, but I certainly wouldn't pony up that kind of cash earlier than I had to. Do they have to pay off standing bets in order to stop taking wagers or something? Weird. Anyway, turns out, Joe the Plumber is also related to the Keatings, and was a registered Republican, not an undecided independent, or whatever it was he told Obama the other day. At this point, I don't think he was a plant either, at least not by anyone with the actual campaign, but it's certainly looking like he had an ulterior motive.

[Yoda]

The problem is, McCain's campaign still does not seem to understand Obama's proposed tax cuts for anyone who make under 250k (including businesses). Whether Obama follows through with his strategy is an entirely different issue but he has been very clear on this from Day 1. I'm not sure what is so complicated that McCain can't figure this out by now.

JTP is not even close to making 250k. Most Americans aren't. The ones who think they can (like JTP) are simply dreaming and just wishing for a big pay day. If you want to live that way then that is fine but realistically, how would an unlicensed plumber in this housing market and economy, earn 250k/yr for the next 4 years? What are the chances of that happening? I'd say zero to none.

[Dan Lambskin]

That's what I'm getting concerned about, Art. Joe is not licensed, he has no intentions of buying the company for which he works anytime soon, and he doesn't make nearly enough money to fall under Obama's tax plan. It's pretty weird.

I would have to say that I do NOT think he was a plant, or at least that he wasn't planted in Obama's path by anyone closely connected to the McCain campaign. It would be a colossal mistake to put someone out there, then make them a focal point of your last ditch chance to appeal to the voters, only to have it all backfire on you when it turns out he isn't the guy he says he is.

it does seem a bit fishy

as far as the tax on small business making $250K a year, is that Net Profit or Gross Sales? obviously in either scenario nobody wants to give the government more money, but if it's Net, well, i'm sorry but you can probably get by just fine on $7,500 a year less...if you cant your living WAY beyond your means

if it's Gross Sales, then depending on your overhead, employee wages, etc it might make a little more of a dent. i really have no idea what most small business owners make, but lets just say it's $50k/year profit...that's $1500 a year or $125 a month more in taxes...i dont see that being enough to cripple these small business owners

again...maybe i'm looking at this the wrong way, but the way they're playing it that Joe the Plumber is getting so screwed by Obama doesnt sit well with me

[knapplc]

That is odd. I think McCain is toast, but I certainly wouldn't pony up that kind of cash earlier than I had to. Do they have to pay off standing bets in order to stop taking wagers or something? Weird.

I would have to imagine that's the deal. I can't imagine throwing money at people when the race is hardly decided. With the Bradley effect it's darned near a dead heat.

Anyway, turns out, Joe the Plumber is also related to the Keatings, and was a registered Republican, not an undecided independent, or whatever it was he told Obama the other day. At this point, I don't think he was a plant either, at least not by anyone with the actual campaign, but it's certainly looking like he had an ulterior motive.

Related, as in, blood relations, or he has business dealings with them? If it's blood relations, I smell a fuse burning...

[Art Vandelay]

Anyway, turns out, Joe the Plumber is also related to the Keatings, and was a registered Republican, not an undecided independent, or whatever it was he told Obama the other day. At this point, I don't think he was a plant either, at least not by anyone with the actual campaign, but it's certainly looking like he had an ulterior motive.

Related, as in, blood relations, or he has business dealings with them? If it's blood relations, I smell a fuse burning...

[/quote]
Looks like he's an inlaw of the Keatings that McCain had dealings with, so he married into the family.

[Yoda]

That's what I'm getting concerned about, Art. Joe is not licensed, he has no intentions of buying the company for which he works anytime soon, and he doesn't make nearly enough money to fall under Obama's tax plan. It's pretty weird.

I would have to say that I do NOT think he was a plant, or at least that he wasn't planted in Obama's path by anyone closely connected to the McCain campaign. It would be a colossal mistake to put someone out there, then make them a focal point of your last ditch chance to appeal to the voters, only to have it all backfire on you when it turns out he isn't the guy he says he is.

it does seem a bit fishy

as far as the tax on small business making $250K a year, is that Net Profit or Gross Sales? obviously in either scenario nobody wants to give the government more money, but if it's Net, well, i'm sorry but you can probably get by just fine on $7,500 a year less...if you cant your living WAY beyond your means

if it's Gross Sales, then depending on your overhead, employee wages, etc it might make a little more of a dent. i really have no idea what most small business owners make, but lets just say it's $50k/year profit...that's $1500 a year or $125 a month more in taxes...i dont see that being enough to cripple these small business owners

again...maybe i'm looking at this the wrong way, but the way they're playing it that Joe the Plumber is getting so screwed by Obama doesnt sit well with me

You pay income tax on net income. That's after all the deductions and business expenses if you own a business.

[Neato Torpedo]

That is odd. I think McCain is toast, but I certainly wouldn't pony up that kind of cash earlier than I had to. Do they have to pay off standing bets in order to stop taking wagers or something? Weird. Anyway, turns out, Joe the Plumber is also related to the Keatings, and was a registered Republican, not an undecided independent, or whatever it was he told Obama the other day. At this point, I don't think he was a plant either, at least not by anyone with the actual campaign, but it's certainly looking like he had an ulterior motive.

I know that if McCain was in town, I'd take my chance to screw with him.

[Amazinz]

Paddy Power has a long tradition of winning free publicity by paying off early, particularly on political contests and it also has a recent record of getting the result spectacularly wrong.

In June, the company paid out early in favor of people who bet Irish voters would approve the European Union's latest treaty in a referendum. The next day, a "no" result sent shock waves across the 27-nation EU, and cost Powers a hefty sum since it ended up paying off both sides of the bet.

The same thing would happen to Powers if it guessed wrong about the U.S. election. The pro-Obama bettors would keep the winnings paid out Thursday, while John McCain backers would cash in, too.

[knapplc]

And they stay in business.... how?


I wouldn't call this race "in the bag" at all. There is still SO MUCH that could happen in the next three weeks.

There are far less expensive ways to get publicity.

[Neato Torpedo]

Paddy Power has a long tradition of winning free publicity by paying off early, particularly on political contests and it also has a recent record of getting the result spectacularly wrong.

In June, the company paid out early in favor of people who bet Irish voters would approve the European Union's latest treaty in a referendum. The next day, a "no" result sent shock waves across the 27-nation EU, and cost Powers a hefty sum since it ended up paying off both sides of the bet.

The same thing would happen to Powers if it guessed wrong about the U.S. election. The pro-Obama bettors would keep the winnings paid out Thursday, while John McCain backers would cash in, too.

Lucky for Powers, nobody bet on the Cubs winning the WS.







....I made myself sad.