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Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby RynMan » Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:10 am

bigken117 wrote:Guy hit .357 with 37 HR....if he's not in your top 3 regardless I don't know what to say. :-S


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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby jake_harv88 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:45 am

Yeah the elbow didn't seem to affect his hitting stroke this year, plus he plays 1B so its not like he needs a cannon in the field...
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby pokerplaya » Tue Oct 14, 2008 7:28 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:
bigken117 wrote:Guy hit .357 with 37 HR....if he's not in your top 3 regardless I don't know what to say. :-S


Agreed....still would have loved to see him get his elbow completely cleaned up, but when you can hit .357 with 37Hr's with an arm that isn't completely healthy....


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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby San D » Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:47 am

pokerplaya wrote:
bigken117 wrote:Guy hit .357 with 37 HR....if he's not in your top 3 regardless I don't know what to say. :-S


Agreed....still would have loved to see him get his elbow completely cleaned up, but when you can hit .357 with 37Hr's with an arm that isn't completely healthy....


Pujols is a tough one for me. Yes, I would draft him 2nd or 3rd due to his huge stats upside, but I would not feel comfortable doing it. He has increased risk over other players in something happening during midseason where he has to hang it up and get surgery. I like my high picks to be safe. One generally doesn't win a season in the draft's early rounds, but they could lose a season with risky picks.
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby clevername » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:57 pm

just to reiterate, this did not address Pujols' "elbow problem" that has everyone concerned of season ending surgery each year. That problem is still there.
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby Yoda » Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:01 pm

It's all about risk tolerance. Based on everything Pujols has done, there is no indication that his elbow is even remotely an issue for hi. He had surgery to make it even better. The following is a list that Rookies and Creme put together:

Rank Player MDP
1 Alex Rodriguez 1.12
2 Hanley Ramirez 3.15
3 David Wright 4.34
4 Jose Reyes 4.53
5 Matt Holliday 6.43
6 Albert Pujols 6.53
7 Chase Utley 7.19
8 Jimmy Rollins 8.17
9 Miguel Cabrera 8.37
10 Ryan Howard 10.10
11 Johan Santana 11.45
12 Prince Fielder 12.10
Full List
Even with the injury concerns, he outperformed his draft spot in 08. He'll be fine.
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:45 pm

Thanks for the mention Yoda. Actually that MDP list you posted was from early in the draft season (3/9/08 to be exact). By the end of the draft season, Pujols dropped an additional 4 slots to an MDP of 10.56, behind Utley, MCab, Rollins, and Santana. One of the few first rounders (perhaps even the only one) to actually outperform his draft position.
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby Yoda » Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:51 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Thanks for the mention Yoda. Actually that MDP list you posted was from early in the draft season (3/9/08 to be exact). By the end of the draft season, Pujols dropped an additional 4 slots to an MDP of 10.56, behind Utley, MCab, Rollins, and Santana. One of the few first rounders (perhaps even the only one) to actually outperform his draft position.


Oops... :-D

Yeah it looked a tad high to me.
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:42 pm

Pujols had the highest StDev until Ichiro at 24. Not only did he outperform his ADP but he pissed off a lot of guys who took him much later.

Also, Garza at 240 is a statistical anomaly, with a 5.70 StDev. :-?
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Re: Pujols Finally Has Surgery, No More Worries?

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:48 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Pujols had the highest StDev until Ichiro at 24. Not only did he outperform his ADP but he pissed off a lot of guys who took him much later.

Also, Garza at 240 is a statistical anomaly, with a 5.70 StDev. :-?


Note that the SD in the MDP report reflects the variability between different site's ADPs (e.g., ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, etc.). It does not account for the variability between individual drafters

That actually isn't a typo with Garza. His ADP was nearly the same from site to site, which is pretty atypical

Mock Draft Central: 243.68
CBS: 242.16
ESPN: 231.20
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