bigwords wrote:Yeah, I think there were flaws in AquaMan2342's assessment of the volatility/predictability of various stats. For one thing, the article was written in 2004 just as the blowback against steroids was heating up. I'd love to see a more contemporary analysis given that HR rates have fallen and more increased attention to that aspect of the game.

I agree with BloodySox's deconstruction of how you can't pick out a few guys to run an analysis.

Even more so, in the article that AquaMan points out from Baseball Prospectus, it indicates that XBA is the most predictable of stats. What's XBA? It's expected batting average based on peripherals like strikeout rate and walk rate, which tend to be extremely stable.

For all those concerned about Pedroia's batting average next season, note that he has an extremely high XBA at .316. It's based on a 92% contact rate and a reasonable 7% walk rate. He doesn't strikeout that much, meaning he puts the ball into play. Therefore, we can expect a very very good batting average from him next season. In fact you can have more confidence that Pedroia has a great batting average next season than X player has 40 HR.

I just want to point out one more thing. Pedroia's production this season didn't come out of the blue. In 2007, BEFORE Pedroia's breakout year, Baseball Prospectus used their PECOTA system to rank the best prospects in the game. Here's the article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=6153

Here was their rankings:

1. Alex Gordon

2. Evan Longoria

3. Tim Lincecum

4. Chris B Young

5. Phil Hughes

6. Dustin Pedroia

7. Alexi Cassila

8. Felix Pie

9. Clayton Kershaw

10. Chris Ianetta

In the same article, they compared the PECOTA scores for all those players under the age of 25. SORTED BY UPSIDE FACTOR.

Pedroia ranked #24, just behind Kazmir, Hughes, and Hamels, and ahead of Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp, and Ian Kinsler.

My point is that there seems to be this general impression that Pedroia has come out of nowhere and that his 2008 season was a statistical aberration. But it's not true. Many sabermetricians always thought VERY VERY highly of Pedroia.

Again, please don't misinterpret this to mean that I'm saying you should draft Pedroia ahead of Prince Fielder. Read my last post before this one. I tried to give a full view of how I measure Pedroia in drafts.

BloodySox has my assessment of Pedroia very accurately. And just for the record, not that it makes a difference, but I'm a Yankees fan.

Given that statement, are you universally saying that any player who has a good contact rate will automatically have a high batting average? That's ridiculous.

As far as the timing of the article goes, it's less a profile of the amount of homers in general as it is each individual player. The makeup of the game's best players is a lot different than it was in 2004, so I don't see where there would be problems applying given formulas in today's game. That's why Adam Dunn hits exactly 40 homers every year.