Sticky Spice wrote:85-77. How about that.
Yeah who knew I was being way too conservative?
I doubt that same team would win that many games if they played it all over again, but I just hope they can build on this in 2010 and at least stay over .500 for a second straight year
And why don't you think they'd win that many games again? If you're thinking that way because of run differential/pythag record, then you're probably mistaken. The problem with using run differential is that it's not luck-independent. For instance, team hitting with men on base or in scoring position, relative to their overall performance, is not a repeatable skill (good or bad). The Mariners were terrible in both instances this year, so they weren't really the worst offense in baseball, simply a bad offense that was extremely unlucky. In reality, that performance with men on/in scoring position greatly impacts run scoring, which in turn impacts the differential and therefore pythag record.
When you look at some of the other record projections, you'd see that they're not really that far off. Baseball Prospectus has both second-order wins (based on equivalent runs, which are based on overall batting lines) and third-order wins (based on equivalent runs adjusted for strength of schedule), which had the M's at 81.8 and 83.0 wins, respectively. In addition, the wins above replacement calcs graded them out as an 83 win team (total of 37 WAR above replacement, with replacement level being a 46 win team). So the variation in their performance and their actual record was not so big. Certainly not big enough that you should see them as a below-.500 true-talent team or anything.